The Washington Nationals (21-37) face the Miami Marlins (24-30) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game road set at loanDepot park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Miami leads the series 7-1. Four of those victories have been 1-run games so it hasn’t been complete dominance.
The Fish nearly wasted an awesome performance from RHP Sandy Alcantara Wednesday. He went 9 scoreless innings, but the Marlins needed extras to squeak a 2-1 win out. The Marlins punished the Nats 12-2 in the series opener.
The Nats almost stole the game Wednedsay but their ‘pen couldn’t hold the 1-0 lead in the 10th. They get back a familiar face Thursday as RHP Stephen Strasburg makes his first start of 2022. Strasburg has made just 7 starts since he was named World Series MVP in 2019 due to surgeries to correct carpal tunnel and thoracic outlet syndrome.
Nationals at Marlins projected starters
RHP Stephen Strasburg vs. LHP Trevor Rogers
Strasburg makes his 1st start of the season.
- Is 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA in 7 starts over the last 2 seasons.
- Thoracic outlet syndrome affects nerves and circulation, which was evident in his 14 BB in 21 2/3 innings in 2021.
- Current Marlins hitters have a .260 batting average in 54 plate appearances against him.
Rogers (2-5, 5.80 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 45 IP.
- Is 1-2 with a 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 9.2 K/9 in his last 5 starts against the Nats.
- Strangely has drastically better splits on the road. He’s 1-2 with a 3.34 ERA in 6 away starts and is 1-3 with a 10.57 ERA in 4 starts at home.
- Current Nats hitters have a .254 batting average with a paltry .287 expected slugging percentage in 65 plate appearances.
Nationals at Marlins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:38 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Nationals +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Marlins -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-180) | Marlins -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Nationals at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 5, Marlins 4
Money line
There has to be good morale in the Nats’ dugout after battling for 10 innings last night and getting their ace back from a long recovery. Strasburg won’t be on an innings limit or pitch count after he threw 83 pitches in his final rehab start Friday.
Strasburg was 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 13 K in 13 2/3 minor league innings. He did have 6 walks, and that’s something to keep an eye on as he tries to find a consistent release point and arm slot. He only allowed 4 hits, which means his stuff is still there. Let’s take a chance at take the NATIONALS (+115).
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Run line/Against the spread
There’s no value in taking Nats +1.5 (-180). I’m also not confident enough to take Nationals First 5 Innings (+140) with Strasburg in his first start back. The Nats also have the 5th-worst bullpen ERA at 4.60.
If we’re riding with the Nats on the wave of Strasburg’s return and narrowly missing a W against the Marlins’ ace Wednesday, then let’s go with NATIONALS +0.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (-130). That will protect us in the event of a tie after 5 frames.
Over/Under
The Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two sides in Miami. We have a pitcher making his 1st start in a year (and 8th in 3 years) and Miami’s starter has a 5.80 ERA. Both bullpens are atrocious as well. There’s a lot of nudges to take the OVER 8.5 (-112).
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