The San Diego Padres (38-19) host the New York Mets (33-22) Tuesday at Petco Park for the 2nd of their 3-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. jumped on San Diego SP Blake Snell by scoring 3 runs in the top of the 1st inning and never looked back, winning the series opener 11-5. Mets 3B Eduardo Escobar hit for the cycle and SP Carlos Carrasco went 7 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 0 walks with 10 strikeouts.
Monday’s Mets-Padres meeting was their 1st of the season. The Mets won the 2021 series 4-3 with a plus-5 run differential.
Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Yu Darvish
Walker is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9 in 40 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Lost 2-0 Thursday at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
- 2021 vs. the Padres: One start, a 4-3 loss in San Diego June 3 with 5 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 2 K.
Darvish is 4-3 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 60 1/3 IP over 10 starts.
- Last start: Lost 5-2 Wednesday at the St. Louis Cardinals with 7 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Mets: One start, a 4-3 home win vs. N.Y. June 3 with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
Padres at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:51 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-205) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Mets 3
Money line
LEAN PADRES (-130).
Darvish has better pitching peripherals than Walker and 4 of Darvish’s 6 pitches have a minus-run value (RV) whereas just 1 of Walker’s 6 pitches has a minus-RV, according to Statcast.
Darvish has been a lot sharper at home. Darvish is 2-1 at home with a 1.71 ERA (5.82 road ERA), 0.68 WHIP (1.41 road WHIP) and 5.0 K/BB rate (2.3 K/BB rate on the road).
I cannot fully get behind San Diego’s ML because New York’s lineup is far more productive vs. right-handed pitching than the Padres. In fact, San Diego’s lineup is 24th in wRC+ (86) and 26th in wOBA (.286) against righties, according to FanGraphs.
LEAN PADRES (-130).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Padres -1.5 (+165) is a no-go because they are 5-13 RL as home favorites and I wouldn’t bet San Diego’s ML and N.Y.’s RL even though the Mets +1.5 (-205) are 9-3 RL as road underdogs.
PASS.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).
The Over 7.5 (-120) has taken some sharp money hence it being pricier than the Under and N.Y. is 7-3-2 O/U as road underdogs, which explains the “lean.”
But, these teams have a combined 5-12 O/U when these starters get the nod, the Padres are 6-11-1 O/U as home favorites and Petco Park is 27th in park factor, aka it’s extremely pitcher-friendly.
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