The St. Louis Cardinals (30-17) host the San Diego Padres (26-21) Monday at Busch Stadium for the 1st of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Memorial Day game is their first meeting this season. Each team won 3 games in last year’s season series, but the Padres had a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.
San Diego won the rubber match of a 3-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2 in extra innings Sunday. The Padres are 7-3 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
St. Louis split its last 2 series — a 4-gamer vs. the Milwaukee Brewers and a back-to-back with the Toronto Blue Jays, both at home. The Cardinals are 6-4 SU in the last 10.
Padres at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Nick Martinez vs. LHP Packy Naughton
Martinez is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 39 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: No-decision in 3-2 home win vs. the Milwaukee Brewers May 23 with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 road splits: 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA (14 IP, 3 ER), 12 H, 3 BB and 17 K over 2 starts and 1 bullpen outing.
Naughton is 0-1 with a 2.89 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 8 K in 1 start and 5 relief appearances.
- Last start: Lost 5-3 at home vs. the Baltimore Orioles May 10 with 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 2 K.
Padres at Cardinals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:31 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Cardinals -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+155) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Padres at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 8, Cardinals 5
Money line
BET the PADRES (-103) because their lineup is a lot more productive vs. left-handed pitching than the Cardinals (-117) are against righties and Naughton is working as an opener for a “bullpen day” but St. Louis’s relief pitching isn’t very reliable.
San Diego is 13-4 SU against lefty starters and ranks 8th in wRC+ (113), 9th in wOBA (.326) and 2nd in BB/K rate (0.55), according to FanGraphs. St. Louis is 21-17 SU vs. righty starters with a 99 wRC+ (ranked 14th), .305 wOBA (18th) and a 27.0% hard-hit rate (26th).
Also, St. Louis’s bullpen is 29th in both FIP (4.34) and contact rate (78.1%), 23rd in hard-hit rate (40.6%) and 21st in exit velocity (89.2 mph), per FanGraphs.
BET 1 unit on the PADRES (-103).
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Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the PADRES -1.5 (+155), if at all, based on the previous analysis and San Diego is 8-5 RL as road favorites and the Cardinals +1.5 (-190) are just 5-5 RL as home underdogs.
But, I wouldn’t go too heavy on San Diego’s RL because the Padres have played in 16 one-run games already this season, including 6 in their last 10 games.
Over/Under
BET the OVER 8.5 (-135) because MLB games have been higher scoring across the league and the weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the mid-to-high-80s with a double-digit mph wind blowing out to left-center field.
Also, St. Louis is 7-3 O/U as home underdogs, San Diego is 9-4 O/U as road favorites and Padres-Cardinals is taking respected money on the OVER 8.5 (-135) hence the price.
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