The No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks Friday at Chase Center for Game 2 of their Western Conference Finals series. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State routed Dallas 112-87 in Game 1 Wednesday as the Warriors outshot the Mavs from everywhere on the floor and held Dallas to a 14-to-13 assist-to-turnover rate.
The Warriors defended Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic very well in Game 1, holding him to just 20 points on 6-for-17 (33.3%) shooting and forcing him into 7 turnovers.
Dallas is 3-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. Golden State this season with the Over/Under (O/U going 2-3.
Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Warriors -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-112) | Warriors -6.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Mavericks at Warriors key injuries
Mavericks
- None
Warriors
- F Andre Iguodala (back) out
- SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out
[tipico]
Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 107, Mavericks 103
Money line
SPRINKLE on MAVERICKS (+220) if at all
They are just 10-19 SU as road underdogs, while the Warriors are 36-9 SU as home favorites.
Dallas’ spread is a sharp play and this ML’s payout is juicy. It’s hard to disregard Game 1’s lopsided result but that’s what you have to do in backing the Mavericks Friday.
Game 1 was a lot more of a toss-up than the final score indicates, according to ShotQuality.com. The win probability was 50/50 and Dallas actually had a better “shot quality score” than Golden State, which is ShotQuality.com’s proprietary stat.
If the Mavs hit some of their 3-pointers, Game 1 looks a lot different. A few more Dallas 3’s would cause Golden State’s defense to close out harder on shooters and open up driving lanes for the Mavs’ ball-handlers.
The Warriors obviously have edges over the Mavs in coaching, continuity, big-game experience and depth.
Again, Dallas’ spread is my preferred wager, but there’s some value in MAVERICKS (+220).
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Against the spread
BET MAVERICKS +6.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of their ML based on the previous analysis. There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market and Dallas bounces back well from losses.
According to Tipico Sportsbook, 60% of the action is on the Warriors -6.5 (-108), but more than 85% of the money is on the Mavs. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.
Dallas is 26-9 ATS following a loss with a plus-6.6 ATS margin and Mavs coach Jason Kidd has proven thus far in these playoffs that he can make in-series, and in-game, adjustments.
Dallas was in a tough spot for Game 1 playing just two days after beating the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns in Game 7 of their Western Conference semifinals series.
Another reason to back Dallas: We saw the Boston Celtics rally back from a loss to smash the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
DALLAS +6.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 213.5 (-107).
It’s the cheaper side of the total and a vast majority of the market is betting the Over 213.5 (-115). But I don’t have a strong grasp on the total, so let’s stick with Dallas’s spread.
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