The Philadelphia Phillies (18-20) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (25-12) Friday for the start of a 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Phillies are 6-4 in the last 10 games, including taking 3 of 4 from the Dodgers in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are also 6-4 in their last 10 and enter on a 5-game winning streak after a 4-game skid, which included three consecutive losses to the Phillies before taking Sunday’s finale.
Season series: Phillies 3-1
Dodgers at Phillies projected starters
LHP Julio Urias vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Urias is 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 36 IP across 7 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 8-3 at home to Phillies Saturday with 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 4 HR, 0 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 5.38 FIP with a .274/.316/.439 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 23.0 K% and 85.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 74 plate appearances (PA).
Suarez is 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 36 1/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: Win, 8-3 at Dodgers Saturday with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 5.00 FIP with a .259/.331/.419 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 19.6 K% and 88.8 mph EV in 56 PA.
Dodgers at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:06 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+115) | Phillies +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Phillies 3
Money line
LEAN DODGERS (-140),
There’s reverse-line movement (RLM) in the betting market since most of the money is on L.A., according to Pregame.com, and the line is moving toward the Phillies (+115), which is suspicious, to say the least.
Philly won with this same starting pitching matchup last week in L.A. and there’s value in fading on the recent bias of that outcome.
Urias gets elite spin on his fastball and curveball and his swing-and-miss rates are much better and two of Suarez’s four pitches have a plus-run value, according to Statcast.
Furthermore, L.A. is 11-4 vs. left-handed starters, Philly is 7-4 against lefties and the Dodgers’ bullpen is a top-3 unit in baseball.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Los Angeles -1.5 (+115) isn’t a big enough payout considering the RLM and how well the Philadelphia played at Dodger Stadium last week.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).
The Dodgers are 2-5 O/U in Urias’ 7 starts and 5-10-2 O/U as road favorites. Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park run factor and the Phillies are 8-11-2 O/U at home.
Also, the weather conditions are more pitcher-friendly. The forecast is predicting temperatures in the cool, high-60s with 15-plus mph winds blowing in from left-center field.
The UNDER 8.5 (-105) is my favorite wager in this series opener.
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