The No. 1 seed Miami Heat (1-0) host the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics (0-1) Thursday for Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Finals with the tip-off scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami won and covered Game 1, 118-107, despite an 8-point first-half deficit because the Heat outscored the Celtics by 25 points (39-14) in the third quarter. The Heat outperformed the Celtics in all “four factors” even though Boston won three of the four quarters.
Miami SF Jimmy Butler scorched Boston for 41 points on 63.2% shooting with 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks.
The Celtics were missing two starters for Game 1. PG Marcus Smart who was sidelined by a foot injury and C Al Horford who entered the NBA’s health and safety protocols.
Celtics at Heat odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Celtics +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Heat -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Celtics +3.5 (-110) | Heat -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Celtics at Heat key injuries
Celtics
- C Al Horford (health and safety protocols) doubtful
- PG Marcus Smart (foot) probable
Heat
- PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
- SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
- PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable
[tipico]
Celtics at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 109, Celtics 102
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Heat (-170) because Miami should win by margin but this ML is a little out of my price range.
The bottom line is the loss of Horford would hurt the Celtics more than the return of Smart helps them because Butler feasted on Boston’s small interior defense with Horford missing.
Butler attacked the basket Tuesday, attempting just two 3-pointers compared to 19 2-pointers and hitting 17-of-18 free throws.
Horford has Boston’s second-best adjusted on/off net rating in these playoffs (plus-14.8) according to CleaningTheGlass.com, whereas the Celtics are scoring 3.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when Smart is on the floor.
Money is coming in on Boston and I’d opt for Miami’s ML if it lowers to -150 or below but, for now, PASS.
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Against the spread
BET the HEAT -3.5 (-110) because Butler can be aggressive again with Horford most likely missing Thursday. If Butler bullies the Celtics again in Game 2, that should collapse Boston’s perimeter defense and get wide-open looks for Miami’s elite 3-point shooters.
Celtics All-Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown also make it easy for the Heat to defend them since they take far too many long, contested 2-pointers.
Miami PF Bam Adebayo was a Defensive Player of the Year finalist, SF P.J. Tucker won a title last season as the Milwaukee Bucks’ primary wing defender and Butler made his bones in the NBA based on his defense.
This is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market according to VegasInsider.com. Roughly 60% of the bets are on the Celtics but nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Heat.
Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the money column of the betting splits is considered the sharper side of the market.
BET the HEAT -3.5 (-110).
Over/Under
Slight LEAN OVER 207.5 (-107) only because both teams have great defenses and the total is suspiciously low considering Game 1 soared Over by 21.5 points.
However, both teams attempted at least 30 3-pointers and 32 free throws in Game 1 and if those rates continue in Game 2 then the OVER 207.5 (-107) will cash regardless of the pace.
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