The Miami Heat (2-0) visit Wells Fargo Center Friday to take on the Philadelphia 76ers (0-2) in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Heat come into this game with a commanding 2-0 series lead.
They’ve yet to play against MVP finalist C Joel Embiid, who seemed to be on track to be a game-time decision. The line was at 1.5 then. It’s now blossomed to 3.5 as Embiid has been ruled out.
Miami, one of the few teams with both a top 12 offensive and defensive rating during the regular season, beat the Hawks 4-1 in the first round. The Heat are led by F Jimmy Butler, averaging 26.5 points per game this postseason.
The Sixers have struggled without Embiid. They’ve lost the first 2 games by a combined 30 points. They’ve yet to score over 105 points or shoot over 30% from deep in the series. Philadelphia is led by G Tyrese Maxey, who is averaging 26.5 points per game this series.
Heat at 76ers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:28 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | 76ers +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -3.5 (-107) | 76ers +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Heat at 76ers key injuries
Heat
- G Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
- G Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
- G Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
- F P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
76ers (not officially submitted)
- C Joel Embiid (concussion) out
[tipico]
Heat at 76ers picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 109, 76ers 103
Money line
PASS.
The Miami money line when the value was around -125 was playable, but at the current price, it’s just not worth the risk. Taking the better odds on the spread will be far better bang for your buck.
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Against the spread
BET HEAT -3.5 (-107).
The Heat have crushed the Sixers in 2 straight games.
On the season, they’re 13-11-1 ATS as a road favorite. They’re deep as well. Miami has 8 players averaging over 8 points per game in the playoffs, so its injuries aren’t quite as concerning.
Philadelphia is just 4-5 ATS as a home underdog. Without Embiid, the Sixers will struggle to keep pace. After all, even in its better-shooting performance, they still lost by 14.
The 76ers traded their best backup big man to the Nets and it’s coming back to bite them. Without a consistent, rim-rolling big man, former MVP G James Harden isn’t nearly as unstoppable.
With the Heat a top-5 team in opponents’ turnover rate during the regular season, they should be able to force the Sixers into some tough situations. Expect another blowout win.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 209.5 (-112).
While the Heat’s defense was among the best in the NBA, they did foul frequently. They ranked 27th in opponents’ free throw attempt rate. Up 2-0 on and on the road, the whistle certainly won’t be in their favor.
The Sixers ranked second in FTA rate during the regular season, and although Embiid is out, Harden is among the NBA’s most foul-dependent players.
The total is 1-1 O/U in the series as it connected in Game 2 on a 119-103 Heat win. I expect the Sixers to get some calls and rack in easy points.
The potential key Miami players missing could be huge as well. If Tucker is out, the Heat’s defense would take a significant hit, as would it if Lowry doesn’t suit up for the first time in the series.
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