The Chicago White Sox (6-9) host the Kansas City Royals (5-9) Tuesday at Guaranteed Rate Field for the start of a 3-game set with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Kansas City has lost 4 in a row, including being swept in 3 at the Seattle Mariners over the weekend.
Chicago is on a worse run, entering on a 7-game slide. The White Sox suffered consecutive 3-game series sweeps at the Minnesota Twins (over the weekend) and the Cleveland Guardians.
The Royals beat the White Sox in last year’s regular-season series 10-9, including 5-5 at Chicago. The White Sox outscored the Royals by 1 run (72-71) in the 19 games.
Royals at White Sox projected starters
LHP Daniel Lynch vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel
Lynch (1-1, 5.40 ERA) beat the Twins Tuesday 2-0, pitching 5-scoreless innings with 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
- 2021 vs. White Sox: 1-2 with a 16.20 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 16 H, 6 BB and 10 K over 3 starts.
- vs. White Sox on the current roster: 20.70 FIP with a .378 expected batting average (xBA), .558 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .901 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 12.5 K% and 93.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 32 plate appearances (PA).
Keuchel (1-1, 15.00 ERA) got roughed up for 10 ER in just 1 inning on 10 H and 1 BB with 1 K in an 11-1 loss at the Guardians Wednesday.
- 2021 vs. Royals: 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA (15 IP, 11 ER), 16 H, 6 BB and 9 K across 3 starts.
- vs. Royals on the current roster: 3.13 FIP with a .235 xBA, .275 xwOBA, .317 xSLG, 20.1 K% and 86.8 mph EV in 169 PA.
Royals at White Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:55 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Royals +125 (bet $125 to win $100) | White Sox -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-160) | White Sox -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Royals at White Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 5, White Sox 4
Money line
LEAN to the ROYALS (+125).
They have a sizeable edge in the pitching department, but the White Sox hit much better versus left-handed pitching.
Lynch is a starter with a lot more upside, whereas Keuchel has settled into a “middle-of-the-rotation” starter at best at this point of his career.
More importantly, K.C.’s bullpen has pitched far better than Chicago’s thus far. Royals relievers are 2nd in FIP, 3rd in home runs allowed per 9 innings and 4th in WAR, per FanGraphs.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS even though K.C. has a better RL record as a road underdog (40-29) since the beginning of last season than Chicago does as a home favorite (38-37).
The Royals also have a better RL record (37-39) in divisional games than the White Sox (35-41). But, ultimately, the Royals +1.5 (-160) is a bit pricey for my blood.
I can’t back the White Sox -1.5 (+130) given how poorly they’ve played recently and Keuchel getting the start. Keuchel is the lowest power-ranked starter in Chicago’s rotation, according to FanGraphs, and has the worst FIP (6.23).
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-125) since Chicago’s lineup is 2nd in both wRC+ and wOBA versus lefties and the weather forecast is predicting double-digit mph winds blowing out to center field.
It’s only a slight LEAN because the Under seems like the “sharper” play since it has heavier juice and there’s reverse-line movement headed South of the total.
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