The Memphis Grizzlies (55-24) meet the Denver Nuggets (47-33) Thursday at Ball Arena for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Denver can clinch a coveted 6-seed in the Western Conference playoffs and skip the play-in tourney with a win Thursday. The Nuggets failed to clinch Tuesday after getting blasted at home 116-97 by the San Antonio Spurs.
Memphis already locked up the 2-seed out West but had its seven-game win streak snapped Tuesday in a 125-119 overtime loss at the Utah Jazz as a 5.5-point road underdog.
The Grizzlies are 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) versus the Nuggets this season and the total is 1-2 Over/Under (O/U).
Grizzlies at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:31 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Grizzlies +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Nuggets -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Grizzlies +5.5 (-112) | Nuggets -5.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Grizzlies at Nuggets key injuries
Grizzlies
- SG Dillon Brooks (hip) questionable
- PG Ja Morant (knee) out
Nuggets
- PF Jeff Green (personal reasons) questionable
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
[tipico]
Grizzlies at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 122, Grizzlies 112
Money line
PASS even though Denver should win comfortably because the Nuggets (-230) are way too expensive considering the Grizzlies keep winning games regardless of who’s in their starting 5. Furthermore, Memphis is 10-9 SU as a road underdog, which makes Denver’s ML a no-go.
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Against the spread
BET the NUGGETS -5.5 (-108) for 1 unit because they have so much more motivation and the Grizzlies can’t exploit Denver’s weak backcourt since Memphis could be without both Brooks and Morant.
MVP-favorite C Nikola Jokic will also put the Nuggets on his back if need be and he’s balled out versus the Grizzlies this season. Jokic is averaging 27.7 points on 71.0% true shooting (.608/.400/.882), 9.7 rebounds and 8.0 assists with a plus-30 net rating in three games against Memphis this season.
This is a profitable price point for Denver who is 8-4 ATS as a 3-to-4.5-point favorite and the Nuggets have been hit by sharp line movement. Denver opened as a 2-point favorite and has been increased to the current number, which tells me the wiseguys see Denver’s motivation edge as well.
Finally, there may be some additional value on the NUGGETS -5.5 (-108) since they were just blown out at home by a shorthanded Spurs team and the Grizzlies are one of the feistier underdogs in the NBA this season.
Over/Under
PASS because this feels like a sharp total and my numbers align pretty closely with the market’s projected score.
For what it’s worth, I “lean” Over 232.5 (-110) because Denver is 44-34-2 O/U and 18-13-1 O/U as a home favorite while Memphis is 40-35-4 O/U and 10-7-2 O/U as a road underdog.
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