The Cincinnati Reds visit Truist Park to kick off the season against the Atlanta Braves Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Braves won the 2021 series 4-3.
The Reds are coming off an offseason in which they made two major trades as they moved RHP Sonny Gray to the Minnesota Twins, and shipped All-Star OF Jesse Winker and 3B Eugenio Suarez to the Seattle Mariners. Both trades returned prospects and draft picks. Cincinnati is expected to be one of the three longshots in the NL Central.
The Braves had a huge offseason as they were unable to come to terms with 1B Freddie Freeman who left for the Los Angeles Dodgers and in his place signed 1B Matt Olson. The Braves are the defending World Series champions.
Reds at Braves: Projected starters
RHP Tyler Mahle vs. LHP Max Fried
Mahle (13-6, 3.75 ERA in 2021) recorded a 1.23 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 across 180 innings through 33 starts in 2022.
- Was much better on the road (2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) than at home (5.63 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) in 2021.
- Was 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in one start against Atlanta last year.
Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA in 2021) had a 1.09 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 through 165 2/3 IP across 28 starts last year.
- Was 7-0 across 11 starts in 2020 and finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting.
- Fried had a 2.94 ERA and 8.3 K/9 through 14 starts at Truist Park in 2021.
Reds at Braves odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Reds at Braves prediction and picks
Prediction
Braves 5, Reds 2
Money line
AVOID.
The Braves are one of the best teams in the NL. However, they aren’t worth a wager on the money line at -180. Their spread offers a better value in this matchup.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET the BRAVES -1.5 (+115).
The Braves ranked eighth in total runs scored last season and finished with a 42-38 home record.
They averaged 4.9 runs per game they should be able to hit their average from a season ago while limiting an unimpressive Reds lineup with Fried on the mound.
Olson put up 39 home runs for the Oakland Athletics in 2021 and earned his first All-Star appearance. The Braves have the more powerful lineup while the Reds dealt two former All-Stars.
Reliever LHP Amir Garrett also left in the offseason which will hurt Cincinnati’s bullpen as well. The Reds had a 39-42 road record and saw a significant decline in their batting this offseason.
BET the BRAVES -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under
PASS.
I like the Under 8.5 here, especially considering Atlanta is walking out their ace and Cincinnati dealt many of its big bats from a year ago, but there’s just simply too much uncertainty on opening day.
Let’s just stick to backing the Braves.
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