The Golden State Warriors (48-27) stop by FedExForum Monday to play the Memphis Grizzlies (52-23) at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Warriors have lost five of their last six games — 1-5 against the spread (ATS) — with the latest being a 123-115 loss at the Washington Wizards Sunday. This is Golden State’s final outing of a five-game Eastern Conference road swing.
Memphis has won eight of its last nine games (6-3 ATS) including four straight wins over the Houston Rockets Mar. 20 (122-98), Brooklyn Nets Wednesday (132-120), Indiana Pacers Thursday (133-103) and Milwaukee Bucks Saturday (127-102).
The Grizzlies are 2-1 straight up (SU) and ATS versus the Warriors this season and the total is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U) in those games. Memphis also eliminated Golden State in the final game of the Western Conference’s playoff play-in tourney last season.
Warriors at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:07 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Warriors +500 (bet $100 to win $500) | Grizzlies -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Warriors +10.5 (-108) | Grizzlies -10.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries
Warriors (not officially submitted)
- PG Steph Curry (foot) out
- C Draymond Green (rest) questionable
- PF Otto Porter (rest) questionable
- SG Klay Thompson (rest) questionable
Grizzlies
- PF Brandon Clarke (hip) questionable
- PF Jarren Jackson Jr. (thigh) questionable
- PG Ja Morant (knee) out
[tipico]
Warriors at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Grizzlies 119, Warriors 106
Money line
PASS.
I think Memphis wins easily but the Grizzlies (-750) are a no-go at this price. There’s no situation during the NBA regular season where a bettor should be laying -750, I don’t care how lopsided the matchup is.
However, Memphis should win this one fairly easily. The Grizzlies are 12-3 SU versus teams in the second of a back-to-back with the best adjusted net rating (plus-14.4), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Golden State also needs both Curry and Green in the lineup to click on all cylinders. The Warriors are just 19-16 SU with Green out of the lineup and Curry has a plus-14.7 adjusted on/off net rating, which ranks in the 98th percentile for point guards, per CTG.
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Against the spread
BET the GRIZZLIES -10.5 (-112) for 1 unit because this is a good spot for them and Memphis has a massive strength-on-weakness edge over the Warriors in the ball security department.
The Grizzlies are 15-8 ATS when playing with a rest advantage (plus-5.5 ATS margin) and 7-3 ATS as 10-point or greater favorites. Plus Memphis has the second-best ATS margin at plus-7.0 when playing teams on zero rest days, per CTG.
The Grizzlies also have the fourth-best defensive turnover rate (TOV%), per CTG, and score the fourth-most points off of turnovers per game. Whereas the Warriors have the second-worst offensive TOV%.
The GRIZZLIES -10.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
PASS because I prefer Memphis’s spread way more than the total and the situational trends don’t provide much of a clue.
For what it’s worth, I “lean” Over 223.5 (-108) because the Grizzlies should get a ton of easy buckets by forcing turnovers and Memphis is scoring 125.7 points per game over the past two weeks.
However, I don’t want to put on money on it since the absence of Curry significantly hurts Golden State’s offense and the Under has cashed in seven of the last nine Warriors-Grizzlies meetings.
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