Following a thrilling opening four days of March Madness, fans will get 12 high-stakes games this weekend, starting with four Sweet 16 matchups tipping off Thursday.
After looking at the NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is a can’t-miss Sweet 16 parlay among our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Thursday’s slate has two of the remaining top-three seeds in action. The West Region’s No. 1 seed Gonzaga takes on fourth-seeded Arkansas in the opener, while the South’s No. 1 seed Arizona faces No. 5 seed Houston in the fourth and final game of the night.
The other two contests feature second-seeded Villanova battling 11th-seeded Michigan in the South, and Coach K’s second-seeded Duke squad taking on No. 3 seed Texas Tech in the West.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: March Madness Sweet 16 betting primer
Thursday Sweet 16 can’t-miss parlay
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:20 p.m. ET.
Leg 1: Gonzaga -9.5 (-110) vs. Arkansas – 7:09 p.m. ET
The Gonzaga Bulldogs – No. 1 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports – have yet to completely unleash their dominance in this tournament. However, they have still managed to get by their two first-round matchups, failing to cover the spread in both.
This game is going to be more about the one-dimensional Razorbacks. Arkansas is led by G JD Notae. At 18.4 points per game, he’s the SEC’s second-best scorer this season.
In postseason play, including two SEC tourney games, Notae is averaging 28.6% from the field and just 14.8 points per game (PPG), well below his regular-season averages of 41.4% and 18.9 PPG, respectively. The Razorbacks managed to get by against two double-digit seeds – No. 13 Vermont and No. 12 New Mexico State – but now facing the tournament’s top-overall seed, it will be far more difficult.
Also, the Zags are the only team with a top-nine offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Against the best frontcourt in the nation, I expect Arkansas to struggle and Gonzaga to come out on top by double figures.
[tipico]
Leg 2: Michigan vs. Villanova UNDER 135.5 (-115) – 7:29 p.m. ET
The Villanova Wildcats are arguably the most well-coached team in the nation, and they typically impose their will on opponents. Meaning, this could be a slower game as ‘Nova ranks 342nd of 358 Division 1 teams in possessions per game. Villanova is 17-18 O/U this season.
While Michigan is 21-12 O/U, it only features two players, C Hunter Dickinson and G Eli Brooks, who averaged more than 10 points per game in the postseason. Villanova head coach Jay Wright will more than likely do all he can to ensure Dickinson doesn’t beat the Wildcats.
Villanova is 1-4 O/U in postseason play.
The ‘Cats will be able to take the Wolverines out of their typical style of play by slowing the pace down and limiting Dickinson. Along with a desire to have this game as a half-court battle, it’s unlikely points are in abundance here.
Leg 3: Houston +1.5 (-110) vs. Arizona – 9:59 p.m. ET
The Houston Cougars have taken down 12th-seeded UAB and No. 4 seed Illinois with relative ease to get to the Sweet 16. Some say their numbers are inflated, but Houston and Gonzaga are the only teams with top-10 offensive and defensive efficiency in the NCAA.
KenPom has the Cougars as the second-best team in the country.
Furthermore, the Cougars, are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, according to TeamRankings.com. Considering Arizona gave up 20 offensive boards to TCU, Houston will have a major advantage on the glass, one that could decide the game.
The Wildcats have arguably the best scorer in the nation, G Bennedict Mathurin, who averaged 24.0 PPG in their two NCAA tourney wins – he averaged 17.3 PPG during the regular season. The Pac-12 Player of the Year willed the Wildcats past the Horned Frogs in a second-round game with a late 3-pointer to force overtime.
However, I’d best against that vs. a team far better than TCU. I’ll take Houston to finalize this winning parlay ticket.
Parlay payout: Bet $100 to win $581.39.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]