The 11th-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish (23-10) play the No. 6 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (19-13) Friday in the first round of the West Region. Tip-off at the Viejas Arena in San Diego is set for 4:15 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Notre Dame vs. Alabama odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Notre Dame advanced to the first round of the main bracket by beating the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 89-87 in overtime Wednesday in the First Four.
The Fighting Irish are 52nd in adjusted net rating, according to KenPom, and played the 67th-toughest schedule, per USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Alabama earned an at-large bid in the Big Dance and finished fifth in the SEC this season, which was the second-best conference in college basketball by winning percentage.
The Crimson Tide were eliminated in the Sweet 16 last season by UCLA in overtime 88-78. KenPom ranks Alabama 25th in adjusted net rating and the Crimson Tide played the second-hardest schedule, according to Sagarin.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: March Madness bracket betting bonanza
Notre Dame at Alabama odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:21 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Notre Dame +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Alabama -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Notre Dame +3.5 (-102) | Alabama -3.5 (-122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 152.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Notre Dame at Alabama odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Notre Dame 77, Alabama 69
Money line
SPRINKLE on NOTRE DAME (+155) with the plan of hitting the spread harder because there’s a suspect line freeze in the betting market and Alabama’s offense is too inefficient.
According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash is on Alabama (-190) but the line hasn’t budged from the opener. This tells us that the oddsmakers are okay accepting more pro-Crimson Tide action. Obviously, we don’t want to play into the House’s hand.
Alabama is 242nd in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and has the 12th-highest 3-point attempt rate, but connects on just 30.8% of them (309th nationally). Notre Dame would love to engage Alabama in a 3-point shootout considering it ranks 20th in 3-point percentage (38.0).
Plus there’s been value in recent tournaments backing teams that played in First Four games. At least one First Four participant has won a first-round game in nine of the 10 NCAA tournaments since the First Four began in 2011. In fact, last season, UCLA made the main bracket via the First Four and ended up eliminating Alabama.
Again, the sharper is the Fighting Irish’s spread but I’ll SPRINKLE on NOTRE DAME (+155).
Against the spread
Definitely BET NOTRE DAME +3.5 (-102) heavier than or instead of the money line based on the aforementioned logic and because we are seeing the same line freeze in the ATS betting market as well.
Furthermore, the Fighting Irish are 3-1 ATS as 3-to-4.5-point underdogs and 9-5 ATS versus teams with a winning record. While the Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS as 3-to-4.5-point favorites and 7-12-1 ATS versus winning teams.
NOTRE DAME PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 152.5 (-110) only because I prefer Notre Dame’s spread more than the total.
But, the Fighting Irish plays at the 310th-fastest pace and they should be able to control the tempo of this game with their above-average defensive rebounding rate and 35th-ranked offensive TOV%.
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