Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves (38-30) stop by FTX Arena Saturday to play the Miami Heat (45-23) at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Minnesota had its six-game winning streak — 6-0 against the spread (ATS) — snapped Friday in a 118-110 loss at the Orlando Magic as an 8.5-point road favorite.

Miami has won four of its last five games (4-1 ATS), which includes 117-105 beatdown of the Cleveland Cavaliers at home Friday, covering as an 8.5-point favorite.

The T-Wolves upset the Heat 113-101 in Minnesota Nov. 24. T-Wolves wing Anthony Edwards erupted for 33 points on 48.1% shooting (6-for-15 from behind the arc) and Minnesota outrebounded Miami 52-40 (15-4 on the offensive glass).

Minnesota is 6-1 straight up (SU) and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Miami and the Over cashed in all of those games.

Timberwolves at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Timberwolves +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Heat -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread: Timberwolves +5.5 (-105) | Heat -5.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 228.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Timberwolves at Heat key injuries

Timberwolves (not officially submitted)

PG Pat Beverley (ear) questionable

Heat (not officially submitted)

SF Jimmy Butler (toe) out
G Victor Oladipo (rest) out

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Timberwolves at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 119, Timberwolves 107

Money line

PASS.

Miami’s spread is my favorite wager in this game but the Heat (-250) are way too expensive for an NBA regular-season favorite.

However, this is a rough spot for the Timberwolves since they are just 2-4 SU on the road in the second of a back-to-back with a minus-6.1 adjusted net rating (ranked 21st) and minus-3.9 ATS margin (ranked 25th), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

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Against the spread

BET the HEAT -5.5 (-120) for three-fourths of a unit.

Miami is 10-6 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record, 6-1 ATS in the last seven games versus winning teams and 10-5 ATS when laying 5-7 points. Also, Minnesota is 4-11-1 ATS on the road versus winning teams and 0-5 ATS in the last five games as a road underdog.

The Heat should do a better job grabbing defensive rebounds in and reducing their turnovers this meeting since Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra will be able to make adjustments.

Finally, the Heat have a strength-on-weakness edge in getting to the charity stripe. Miami is seventh in offensive FT/FGA rate and Minnesota is dead-last in defensive FT/FGA rate.

Over/Under

PASS.

This Timberwolves-Heat total is 15.5 points higher than the first, which may be too big of an increase, but I still cannot go with the Under. Both teams have lethal 3-point shooters and send their opponents to the foul line too often.

The Over has also cashed in 10 of the last 11 Timberwolves-Heat meetings and these teams have a combined 43-22 O/U record when facing teams with a winning record.

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