Clemson’s men’s basketball team has played in two of the last three NCAA Tournaments, but the Tigers face an uphill climb just to get back in the conversation for a berth in this year’s Big Dance.
Clemson missed out on a prime opportunity earlier in the week when the Tigers fell to No. 9 Duke in the final minute inside Cameron Indoor Stadium. Clemson had a chance to notch its first Quadrant 1 victory of the season. Instead, the two-point loss was the Tigers’ fourth setback in five games, dropping them to 11-9 overall and 3-6 in ACC play.
The Tigers, who have the weekend off, now sit at No. 75 in the NET rankings with just a combined 2-6 record in the first two quadrants. But if there’s good news in this scenario for the Tigers, it’s that they still have time.
Selection Sunday is six weeks away, and Clemson still has half of its league schedule left to play before the ACC Tournament. The Tigers will return to action Wednesday against Florida State at Littlejohn Coliseum, which will be the 10th game of their 20-game conference slate.
Is it possible for Clemson to play its way back onto the bubble? Maybe.
Clemson already has more regular-season losses than it did in 2021 and 2018 when the Tigers received at-large berths. The last time they had double-digit losses in the regular season during a non-COVID-impacted season (2018-19), the Tigers were relegated to the National Invitation Tournament.
So having nine losses before February is far from ideal, but there have been plenty of double-digit loss teams over the years selected to participate in the tournament. The most losses an at-large team has ever had is 15, which recently happened in three straight NCAA Tournaments. Florida was the last to do it in 2019.
All bubble teams are there in the first place because they’ve lost a bunch of games. The separating factor for the teams that got in were who they beat, which is why the Tigers’ record against the stiffest competition on their schedule (the first two quadrants) is key.
Clemson has more opportunities for those quality wins in the back half of its league slate, though not as many as it’s used to having amid a down year in the ACC. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had just five ACC teams making the tournament in his latest bracket projections released Friday, and one of them, North Carolina, was among his last four teams into the 68-team field.
Still, Clemson has some chances to boost its postseason resume the rest of the way starting with the first of two games against Florida State, which, with a NET of 70, will be a shot at a Quad 2 victory. The Tigers also have other Quad 2 opportunities remaining against North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.
The biggest boost to Clemson’s resume would be Quad 1 victories. The Tigers have two of those coveted opportunities left – a rematch at home with Duke on Feb. 10 and a return trip to Florida State on Feb. 15. And if Wake Forest, currently 35th in the NET, could move inside the top 30 before Clemson hosts the Demon Deacons on Feb. 23, that would be a third crack at Quad 1 victory.
Not only does Clemson likely need to get at least a couple of those, it would also behoove the Tigers to avoid another bad loss in the last two quadrants. The Tigers still have to make a return trip to Boston College on Feb. 26 after falling to the Eagles earlier this month, their lone Quad 4 loss to this point. Clemson also has to play Georgia Tech twice, which presents a couple of potential Quad 3 landmines.
Clemson has also played better the last couple of times out.
Before falling to Duke in the final seconds, the Tigers routed Pittsburgh at home for a 27-point win. That was the first game Clemson coach Brad Brownell made sophomore guard Chase Hunter a regular starter. Hunter has given the backcourt a major boost since, combining for 25 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists with just one turnover in those two games.
“We’ve got some time, so we need to heal our wounds, make sure we keep this momentum, stay connected and be ready to compete down the stretch,” Brownell said.
Of course, if Clemson runs the table at the ACC Tournament next month, then the Tigers would automatically qualify for the NCAA Tournament and all of this becomes a moot point. Since the conference tournament began in 1954, though, Clemson has never won it.
If the tournament started today, Clemson would be the No. 10 seed. If the Tigers want to give themselves a more realistic path to the NCAAs than having to win five games in five days in New York, they need to start stacking up wins. If they do that, the right ones will come along.
Otherwise, Clemson will have to wait at least one more year to break out its dancing shoes again.
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