The Chicago Bulls (17-9) head to South Beach Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off against the Miami Heat (15-11) at FTX Center. Below, we look at the Bulls vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Chicago had its four-game win streak snapped Wednesday with a 115-92 loss at the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bulls are 4-2 straight-up (SU), 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over the last two weeks with the 10th-best efficiency differential according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CtG).
Miami upset the Milwaukee Bucks 113-104 as a 6.5-point home underdog Thursday but is just 3-4 SU in its last seven games. The Heat are 3-4 ATS and 4-3 O/U with the 25th-best efficiency differential over the past two weeks (CtG).
The Heat won the first regular-season meeting with the Bulls 107-104 in Chicago Nov. 27 as 1-point road favorites and the Over cashed on a 209.5-point total. However, both teams were at full health whereas each is missing a plethora of contributors for this meeting.
Bulls at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bulls -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Heat -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bulls +1.5 (-122) | Heat -1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Bulls at Heat key injuries
Bulls
- SG Alex Caruso (hamstring) questionable
- SF DeMar DeRozan (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Derrick Jones (health and safety protocols) out
- PG Coby White (health and safety protocols) out
Heat
- SG Duncan Robinson (quadriceps) probable
- C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
- SF Jimmy Butler (back) out
Bulls at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 109, Bulls 104
Money line
“LEAN” to the HEAT (-110) because they are 6-2 SU as an underdog with a plus-5.1 scoring margin. I also trust Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra to get more out of his shorthanded roster than Chicago head coach Billy Donovan.
Miami was deeper even before Chicago’s COVID-related absences. The Heat have the fifth-highest scoring bench in the NBA with the fifth-best plus/minus whereas the Bulls had the second-worst scoring bench.
DeRozan ranks 93rd percentile of wings in on/off efficiency differential and he scored a game-high 28 points on 57.9% shooting in the first Bulls-Heat meeting this season.
Moreover, Miami does a good job defending how Chicago plays. The Bulls run a lot of action through pick-and-roll (PnR) offense and attempt the most long-mid-range jumpers (per CtG), but the Heat play good PnR defense and have the best defensive field goal percentage versus long-mid-range jumpers.
The reason why I only “LEAN” to the HEAT (-110) is that the Bulls have by far the best player on the floor in G Zach LaVine. I’m high on LaVine this season and he’s ascended to one of the best 20 players in the NBA.
Against the spread
PASS since Miami’s money line is only 8 cents on the dollar pricier than the Heat -1.5 (-102) so there’s no use in fussing with the points in this game.
That said, the trend of Miami’s 7-1 ATS record as an underdog with a plus-10.1 ATS margin applies here since this game is priced as a coin-flip.
Over/Under
PASS since it’s hard to predict how these teams will operate with all the missing players.
The previous three Bulls-Heat games have gone Over the total and I think there’s a better chance of a shootout than a rock-fight in this one, but I don’t have a strong enough conviction in that to bet it.
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