The 2021 fantasy football stretch run is upon us with two more regular-season weeks giving way to the start of the postseason in Week 15 in the majority of leagues.
Hopefully, most of your fantasy teams either have locked up a playoff berth or are about to. But if you need to win out to have a shot at one of the final postseason berths in your league (you can’t see it, of course, but I’m raising my hand here), you’re likely counting on several key players to reverse their recent fortunes or shed their disappointment labels just in time to save your season.
With that very scenario in mind, this week’s TT&T looks at some of fantasy’s most disappointing players of November (Weeks 9-12) and assesses their “hope” or “heartbreak” potential for December when we’re not only trying to qualify for the playoffs but make some noise once we get there.
Here goes, starting (as usual) at …
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
November’s numbers: After ranking as fantasy’s best quarterback over the season’s first eight weeks with 26 total touchdowns, five interceptions and an average of 27 fantasy points per game (performance PPR scoring), Brady averaged only 17.2 fantasy points during November (14th among QBs who played in multiple games) with five total TDs and four interceptions in three contests.
December’s outlook: Hope, most definitely
The Bucs rolled up 38 points Sunday in Indy, but touchdown fortune wasn’t with Brady as Tampa Bay scored four rushing TDs in the game after entering the day with eight in their first 10 contests.
Help also is on the way as wide receiver Antonio Brown is due back any week from the ankle injury that has sidelined him since Week 4, and he and Brady can try to rekindle their strong connection, which produced four TD hookups in five games.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who only played six snaps in the Bucs’ six games from Weeks 4-10, also looks to be getting healthier at the right time as he had a season-high 123 receiving yards on seven receptions and 10 targets Sunday.
Combine those two with WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and the under-the-radar emergence of RB Leonard Fournette as a dangerous pass-catching back (tied for third among RBs with 51 receptions), and Brady’s weapons take a backseat to none.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
November’s numbers: The Cincy sophomore averaged only 13.6 fantasy points (25th among QBs with multiple starts) with just three total TDs in his three contests this month after averaging 21.9 (10th among QBs) with 20 total TDs during the season’s first eight weeks.
December’s outlook: Hope
Running back Joe Mixon’s November tear (second among RBs with 352 rushing yards and six TDs during the month) has certainly cut into Burrow’s fantasy production, but with a more formidable slate rushing defenses awaiting the Bengals in December, Burrow likely will need to air it out more to keep Cincy in the AFC playoff picture.
Burrow is getting healthier as he moves further away from his 2020 knee injury, and his upper-level cast of weapons (WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and TE C.J. Uzomah) is still intact as well.
So don’t be surprised in the least to see a Burrow bounce-back next month.
Running backs
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
November’s numbers: Henderson totaled the 10th-most fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) among running backs through the season’s first eight weeks, averaging 17.5 points per outing. In his three games since, Henderson has totaled 34.2 points (11.4 per outing), which ranked 30th at the position in November. And that total was boosted significantly by his 17.3-point game Sunday afternoon in Green Bay.
December’s outlook: Hope
Henderson remains one of the league’s true No. 1 backs, having played 68.8 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps this season and averaging a healthy 16.9 touches per game.
The Rams’ passing game, meanwhile, is showing late-season signs of slippage and wear and tear, so don’t be surprised if the Rams lean on Henderson even more down the stretch as they look to right themselves from their current three-game losing streak.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
November’s numbers: Jones returned from a one-game, knee-injury absence Sunday but only had 23 yards on 10 carries without a reception in the team’s 36-28 win over the Rams. Emerging backup A.J. Dillon, meanwhile, totaled 90 yards and a TD on a career-high 25 touches. In three November games, Jones totaled 20.2 PPR points (6.7 per outing) after averaging 18.1 (eighth among RBs) over the Pack’s first eight games.
December’s outlook: More heartbreak
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Green Bay has its bye in Week 13, which does provide extra recovery time for Jones, but it’s brutal timing for Jones’ fantasy teams desperately in need of a win this coming weekend.
Even more concerning, though, is Dillon’s emergence. While Jones was averaging 6.7 fantasy points per game in November (48th among RBs), Dillon was averaging 18.9 (eighth at the position) while averaging 19.3 touches per outing, including 17 total receptions (fifth among RBs) for 171 yards and a TD.
The cat is now out of the bag, and it looks to be a full-blown RB timeshare now in Green Bay. That’s less than ideal for those who were counting on a return to RB1 production down the stretch for Jones.
Wide receivers
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
November’s numbers: Over the first eight weeks, this Cincinnati rookie was on a record pace with 38 receptions for 786 yards and seven TDs on 60 targets — good for 159.3 total PPR points and an average of 19.9 per game, ranking fifth among wideouts. His three contests since Halloween, though, has brought a frightening drop-off with 12 catches for 120 yards and one TD on 22 targets — good for all of 30.8 fantasy points and an average of only 10.3 per game (40th at the position).
December’s outlook: Ample hope
Has Chase hit the proverbial rookie wall or have opposing defenses simply caught up?
It sure looks to be some of both as Chase’s targets-per-game average has only declined slightly from 7.5 to 7.3 over the two spans, while his average yards per catch (20.7 to 10.1) and target (13.1 to 5.5) have fallen off precipitously.
But like his quarterback’s December forecast above, there is fantasy optimism. Just realize that WR2 production is likely now the ceiling rather than a sudden return to the elite WR1 numbers Chase was putting up with regularity over the first half of the season.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans
November’s numbers: Cooks on Sunday had his best fantasy showing (13.5 points) in a month, but that it only ranked 24th at the position in Week 12 speaks volumes about how disappointing November has been for the Texans’ top fantasy asset. In three games during the month, Cooks has only caught 11-of-21 targets for 119 yards and one TD for a total of 28.9 fantasy points or an average of 9.6 per game (43rd among WRs). In Weeks 1-8, Cooks averaged 15.3 fantasy points per contest to rank 23rd at the position — and that was with struggling rookie Davis Mills starting six of those eight games.
December’s outlook: Slim hope
You would think the 2-9 Texans will need to throw plenty to stay in games down the stretch, but through Week 12, the Texans were averaging only 31.6 passing attempts (27th in the league) and 20.5 completions (26th) per game.
Cooks, meanwhile, is averaging 7.3 targets, 3.7 receptions and 39.7 yards per outing over his last three games, but we (hopefully) should see those averages bump up slightly to WR3 levels during the coming stretch run.
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
November’s numbers: Just when Metcalf’s fantasy general managers were convinced things couldn’t get any worse for the third-year wide receiver, along came Monday night’s game in Washington in which he finished with one reception for 13 yards on four targets — his worst fantasy outing (2.3 points) over the last two seasons. That gave him a total of eight catches for 70 yards and no TDs for 15 fantasy points in three November games — a far cry from the dominant wideout who ranked 10th at the position with an average of 18.1 fantasy points per outing over his first eight games.
December’s outlook: WR2 hope
At a shocking 3-8 — the second-worst record in the NFC — the Seahawks appear headed toward the second playoff-less campaign in QB Russell Wilson’s 10 seasons with the franchise.
Could Seattle throttle things down once it’s officially eliminated from playoff contention? Perhaps, but not likely.
Despite the brutal game for Metcalf on Monday, Wilson did easily look his best since returning from his finger injury absence in Week 10.
And while a return to WR1 production over the next five games is a long shot for Metcalf, it’s not hard to envision a significant reversal of fantasy fortune for the freakishly talented wideout in the coming weeks with a near-full-capacity Wilson and nothing left to lose for the Seahawks.
Tight ends
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
November’s numbers: The fourth-overall pick in last spring’s draft looked like he was going to shatter the struggling-rookie-tight-end stigma after averaging 12.5 PPR points over his first eight games. But he’s followed that up with a 7.4 average in November (21st among tight ends), catching only 12 of 25 targets for 177 yards and no TDs in four games.
December’s outlook: Ample hope
Pitts still easily leads the Falcons and ranks sixth among all tight ends with 75 targets, and is 661 receiving yards trail only Travis Kelce (821) and Mark Andrews (761) at the position.
If his relatively low catch percentage (60.0) improves at all while his volume more or less holds steady and his TD production improves (he remains stuck on one), Pitts will jump back into the TE1 conversation real quick.