The Sacramento Kings (8-12) meet the Memphis Grizzlies (9-10) Sunday at the FedExForum for a 6 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Kings vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
The Kings have pulled off two straight upsets: Sactown first beat the Portland Trail Blazers 125-121 Wednesday, next the Lakers 141-137 in overtime in Los Angeles Friday. The Kings are 9-11 ATS and 8-11-1 O/U with the 21st-ranked net rating (minus-1.1).
Memphis has gotten crushed in three of its past four games, which includes a 132-100 home loss vs. the Atlanta Hawks Friday.
However, the major storyline from Memphis’s game against Atlanta Friday was a knee injury sustained by Ja Morant that will keep him sidelined indefinitely. The Grizzlies are 10-9 ATS and 11-8 O/U with the 25th-ranked net rating (minus-6.8).
The Grizzlies won all three regular-season meetings with Kings last year but Sactown covered two of three. In fact, the Kings have covered seven of their last nine games vs. the Grizzlies.
Kings at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:59 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Kings +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Grizzlies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Kings +3.5 (-112) | Grizzlies -3.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Kings at Grizzlies key injuries
Kings
- PF Maurice Harkless (knee) questionable
- SF Harrison Barnes (foot) doubtful
- C Richaun Holmes (illness) out
Grizzlies
- PG Ja Morant (knee) out
Kings at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Kings 124, Grizzlies 113
Money line
Morant’s absence leads to a significant edge in the backcourt for the KINGS (+125) and Memphis will be without its only reliable shot creator.
For instance, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, Morant grades in the 73rd percentile of guards on/off court efficiency differential.
Furthermore, Kings guard De’Aaron Fox is averaging 21.1 points per game on 47.9% shooting with 6.4 assists per game and a plus-5 net rating in 11 career games against Memphis.
Also, Sactown runs the second-highest volume of pick-and-roll action through the ball handler and Memphis has the third-worst defensive efficiency vs. pick-and-roll ball handlers.
And the Kings’ two probable inactives Sunday—Barnes and Holmes—grade in the 23rd percentile of wings in on/off efficiency differential (Barnes) and 42nd percentile of bigs (Holmes), respectively.
However, recent injuries to Sactown’s frontcourt combined with the recent ousting of former head coach Luke Walton opens the door for more playing time for Kings’ big Marvin Bagley III.
In the previous two games, Bagley put up 11.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per outing with 81.8% shooting. Plus Bagley has the best efficiency differential on the Kings at plus-15.8 points per 100 possessions. Granted, that’s in limited time because Bagley didn’t get much run under Walton.
On top of that, the Kings take the fourth-highest volume of shots at the rim and the Grizzlies rank 24th in shot quality allowed vs. attempts at the rim (according to ShotQuality.com).
“LEAN” to the KINGS (+125) because there’s more value in Sactown getting the points but, either way, the Kings are the right side here.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the KINGS +3.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of Sactown’s money line based on the aforementioned logic. Also, the Kings are more efficient on the road than the Grizzlies are at home.
For example, Sactown is 14th in efficiency differential in away games while Memphis is 22nd in efficiency differential at home with a minus-5.7 ATS margin, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 222.5 (-108) as a fade against a market that’s hammering the Under at a 90-plus-percent clip at the time of publishing, according to Pregame.com. In my opinion, there’s value in fading the overreaction to Morant’s absence.
In addition, the possible absence of two Kings’ starters should equal more reps for Sactown guards Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, both of which are high volume 3-point shooters. Well, Memphis has the worst defensive 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA.
Finally, Morant not running the show for the Grizzlies will mean the Kings can dictate the pace and Sactown plays at the ninth-fastest in pace. The bottom line is we should see a fast-paced, 3-point shootout in the Kings-Grizzlies contest.
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