The Miami Heat (12-6) meet the Minnesota Timberwolves (8-9) Wednesday at Target Center for an 8 p.m. ET game. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Miami has won five of its past six games (4-2 ATS) with the latest being a 100-92 victory at the Detroit Pistons Tuesday as 10.5-point favorites. The Heat are 12-6 ATS and 10-8 O/U with the third-best net rating (plus-7.5).
Minnesota enters on a four-game winning streak and five-game cover streak, which includes a 43-point beatdown of the Memphis Grizzlies this past weekend. The T-Wolves are 8-9 ATS and 5-12 O/U with the 11th-best net rating (plus-2.0).
These teams split last year’s season series 1-1 with the home team winning and covering both meetings. The Over has cashed in six straight Heat-Timberwolves games and nine of the last 10.
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Heat at Timberwolves odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Timberwolves -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-102) | Timberwolves +1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Heat at Timberwolves key injuries
Heat
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Timberwolves
- SF Josh Okogie (back) questionable
Heat at Timberwolves odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 107, Timberwolves 103
Money line
BET 1 unit on the HEAT (-112) because they match up well vs. the T-Wolves stylistically, and Miami has a massive strength-on-weakness edge in its favor.
For instance, the Heat attempt the fourth-highest volume of mid-range field goals and the T-Wolves are 18th in defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range jumpers.
Furthermore, Miami has the highest offensive FT/FGA rate in the Association and Minnesota has the worst defensive FT/FGA rate.
A major reason why the Heat excels at getting to the charity stripe is that Jimmy Butler averages the second-most free-throw attempts per game in the NBA.
Also, Butler could be extra motivated in this spot since the T-Wolves are his former employer, and he’s going head-to-head with last year’s No. 1 overall pick in Minnesota wing Anthony Edwards.
Lastly, the Heat play very well against good teams (7-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record), and the T-Wolves are better than their sub-.500 record indicates.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Minnesota has the third-worst win differential based on efficiency differential. Essentially, the T-Wolves have 2.5 fewer wins than they should. Butler and the Heat should be motivated to play an up-and-coming team.
All these factors lead to me BETTING the HEAT (-112) to pull this one out.
Against the spread
PASS since Miami’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Heat -1.5 (-102). Don’t be cheap, just lay it with Miami outright.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 213.5 (-112) since, according to Pregame.com, there’s “reverse line movement” headed south. Nearly 90% of the action is on the Over.
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