Every year in late November we celebrate all of the things we are thankful for. After last year and all of the COVID craziness (including the rescheduling of one of the Turkey Day games), I am happy that we will be able to once again gather with our friends and family this Thursday to shovel in food until we are sick to our stomaches, argue with our relatives about the state of the economy and politics, and watch Chicago versus Detroit. Ugh, I guess, at the very least, we know which game we can plan our tryptophan nap during.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Yay, it’s a matchup of two turkeys! Actually, this is more like the matchup between the mayo-based salad that Aunt Polly brought but didn’t refrigerate and Tofurkey.
Justin Fields has not done enough yet this year to suggest that he should be a starting NFL QB. You could probably even argue that Andy Dalton would provide Chicago a better chance to win games. Not surprisingly, Fields left Sunday’s game with an injury, and Dalton immediately entered and threw a TD pass to Darnell Mooney. Of course, Detroit tends to make even the worst QBs look like future MVPs. On this slate, a healthy Fields or a starting Dalton both would get a QB4 nod price, either could surprise at a value price.
Tim Boyle started Sunday in place of the injured Jared Goff, and let’s just say that Boyle is no David Blough. Goff didn’t practice at all last week, so there is a solid likelihood that he won’t play on Thursday, either. Detroit’s only prayer is that he does. If either Blough or Suck gets the start, you can ignore all of their skill players even the few talented ones they have.
David Montgomery took no time in re-usurping the RB1 role in Chicago. Khalil Herbert looked great in Monty’s absence, but he has just as quickly vanished into the woodwork. Against a bad Detroit run defense, Montgomery is the easy RB1 on this slate, and Herbert could be a sneaky punt-FLEX.
D’Andre Swift is the only Lion that you can consider starting if Goff isn’t under center. Heck, you could argue he is the only one you should start even if Goff starts at QB. Jamaal Williams isn’t seeing the volume necessary to be anything more than a Showdown slate injury-pivot. Swift gets the RB3 nod this week, but just barely over Josh Jacobs.
Allen Robinson missed Week 11 due to injury and he missed the first 10 weeks of the season with a drop-off of talent. If he suits up, the matchup suggests potential success. Unfortunately, I don’t feel comfy playing him unless Dalton gets the start. Even then, he is no better than the WR6 on the slate. Darnell Mooney has been the safer play this year, and I don’t mind him at WR3/FLEX. But, again, I will probably have minimal exposure to this game as a whole. Marquise Goodwin is the Bears’ third WR. There is nothing “Good” nor “Win”-ning about playing him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds would have deep WR3 punt value if Goff suits up. Otherwise, they can be ignored. Kalif Raymond may have more value than either of them due to his deep-play ability, but I don’t trust any of the Lions’ limp-armed quarterbacks to get him the ball.
Cole Kmet has been one of the best receiving options for Fields over the last month. Of course, with Dalton under center last week, he was barely targeted. The old man Dalton actually targeted the old man Jimmy Graham multiple times. I’d put either of them at TE5, at best, this week. Obviously, playing the trend based on which QB starts.
T.J. Hockenson has actually put up decent numbers all season, but his lack of scores and his occasional disappearance line has dulled most of his dynasty shine. Boyle actually targeted him the most last week, so if there is another Lion to consider this week it is probably him. No matter who is under center, I’ll rank him as the TE3 this week.
Chicago’s defense is in play this week, and it doesn’t matter who starts for Detroit. If anyone other than Goff starts, they become the best play of the slate. There may be some sense in using the Detroit defense at a costs savings. I probably won’t, but i can see the argument for it.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys
Nothing says Thanksgiving more than sitting alone with all of your fellow degenerates in a sportsbook in Vegas after engorging in an all-you-can-eat buffet. Fortunately, I’ve only done that once in my 46 years on this planet. I miss the days of old when we would get the Cowboys versus Washington on Turkey Day. Hell, this isn’t even a divisional rivalry. Who put this stupid schedule together for this week? I guess as a Chiefs fan I will be forced to root for Dallas in this one.
Derek Carr has played solid all season. Against a subpar Dallas defense, he should post 275-2 as a floor. On paper, his matchup versus opposing pass defense looks to be the safest play, but I still rank him as QB3 this slate.
As for Dallas, If CeeDee Lamb plays, Dak Prescott will be my QB1 this week. Otherwise, he slides to QB2 behind Josh Allen. Vegas’ defense isn’t bad, but they have been slightly out of sorts since their coaching change. Even short-handed, Dak is just too electric of a QB to not use in this spot – especially since he will be cheaper than Allen.
Josh Jacobs continues to get no respect despite actually putting up solid numbers all season. He has battled a few injuries, but when he has been on the field, the numbers have been there. Dallas has been very stingy against the run this season, which will relegate Jacobs to the RB4 on this slate. With his proclivity to score TDs, I could still see a decent case for playing him at FLEX. Kenyan Drake has gotten large stat lines on weeks that Jacobs has been out. In the weeks that Jacobs plays, the numbers have been less but still useable. If you need to shave some money, he also has FLEX appeal.
Ezekiel Elliott started the season in a true timeshare with Tony Pollard. Since their bye, Zeke has led the touches at a 3-2 ratio. Vegas has not been good against the run, so Elliott should be the clear RB1 here and in your lineups, assuming he isn’t limited by a minor ankle injury sustained last week. Pollard (much like Drake) has kept a modicum of value and you can use him as a FLEX play in this favorable matchup. If Zeke misses this game, Pollard becomes a must-start.
The biggest turkey of this football season was Henry Ruggs. Thankfully he is stuffed away in the Nevada penal system. His absence has opened up the green light for playing Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards. Both are great options on this slate. I have Renfrow ranked no lower than WR5 and Edwards right around WR7/8. For what feels like the 10th time in his career, DeSean Jackson made an absolutely boneheaded play in Week 10. It remains to be seen if he will continue to hold Carr’s trust. His speed always puts him in Showdown slate consideration, but I won’t use him or Zay Jones in these full slate tourneys.
Amari Cooper missed Week 11 with COVID, sad he will miss this game as well. Cooper’s absence would’ve opened up CeeDee Lamb as the consensus WR1 on this slate. Of course, Lamb left last week with a head injury, and he is already doubtful to play on a short week. With both of them likely out, Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson jump into the WR2/3 range. Noah Brown has also seen an uptick in snaps and targets during Cooper’s absences. He would be best left for Showdown contests, but he could be used as a deep punt WR3/FLEX here, especially if Lamb is out.
Darren Waller has not had the season many had predicted this year. Still, he remains one of the best TEs in the league and the No. 1 tight end on this slate. Foster Moreau had vanished since Waller returned from injury. He returned last week and vultured a score. In a positive matchup, I could see using him in Showdown contests. I don’t trust him enough in full slate tourneys, though.
Dalton Schultz may eventually see his numbers go down when all of Dallas’ WRs are healthy. Fortunately for him, that hasn’t happened yet this year. With Cooper and Lamb still likely out this week, Schultz should see enough value to be TE2 on the board. Even if one or both of them returns, I still trust Schultz more than them.
The Raiders have a defense that has been solid but has been out of sorts recently. I don’t trust them here against the Cowboys. Dallas will get you a couple of INTs and maybe a pair of sacks, but there are better options available.
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints
Last year the Thanksgiving evening game was postponed due to COVID. That won’t happen this year. For those of you that follow me on Twitter, make sure you check out this week’s #MatchupMeal. I promise that I won’t have any crab legs (sorry, Jameis Winston) or King Cake on the menu.
Josh Allen has played down to his competition recently. This has led to five INTs in his last three starts. Still, with all of the WR injuries in Dallas, I am ranking him as QB1 this week a shade ahead of Dak Prescott. The Saints gave up a trio of rushing scores to Jalen Hurts last week, so a rushing score is in play, but they also have a pass defense that is better than their numbers show.
Trevor Siemian certainly had no reason to believe that he would be starting this season. After all, he was clearly behind both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill in the preseason. Winston is out for the year and Hill is dinged up as well, leaving Siemian as the primary QB for this offense. The numbers haven’t been awful for Siemian, but this will be clearly the best defense that he has faced. I can’t rank him higher than QB4 here. Hill, who was battling a foot issue, suited up but didn’t play in Week 11. If he is good to go for next week, he gets the QB6 ranking above anyone that Detroit starts.
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary consistently kill each other’s value. That is when Allen doesn’t kill both of their values. Heck, at this point even Matt Breida is outperforming them. Trusting any of them against an elite New Orleans’ run defense is a fool’s game. Singletary is used the most in the passing game, so if I was forced to choose between them he would get the nod. Fortunately in DFS, I am not forced to choose any of these stooges.
Alvin Kamara has missed the last two games with an MCL injury. On a short week, I don’t like his chances to return here. Jonathan Taylor exposed the Buffalo run defense in Week 10, so if Kamara can make it back he would be in RB1 consideration. As it stands, Mark Ingram will get his third-straight start, and he makes a solid RB3/4. I love him at FLEX this week. Tony Jones returned from his ankle injury last week but didn’t do anything. I don’t see any reason to stretch and play him.
Stefon Diggs will always have the memory of the Minneapolis Miracle when he scored the last-second TD to knock New Orleans out of the playoffs a couple of years back while with Minnesota. On that play, he wasn’t being shadowed by Marshon Lattimore. This week, Lattimore will be hounding him. Diggs is still talented enough to get the WR2 nod on a bad WR slate. Just know that he probably won’t reach 3x value, unless he can get himself into the end zone. Cole Beasley has had a pair of letdown weeks. He will need to be the focal point this week if Diggs is corraled. He is always in play because of his PPR potential, but I especially like him in this spot. I also like Emmanuel Sanders this week with the revenge game narrative in play. One of these two should likely be your WR2. Gabriel Davis has been a hit-or-miss play this year. I prefer to use him in Showdown lineups. That said if you want a cheap WR3/FLEX play, you could do a lot worse.
New Orleans’ WR room is full of a bunch of guys that I couldn’t ID in a lineup alongside Shaquille O’Neal. Tre’Quan Smith has been featured the most of late. This means that he will likely be forced to be swallowed whole by a fellow Tre’, Tre’Davious White. WR1s tend to do nothing versus White’s coverage. I feel much better about using Marquez Callaway. I could see using him as a WR3 at a costs savings. Deonte Harris can also be considered in that conversation since he has home run potential. He will only be thwarted by Siemian’s lack of arm strength. Still, he is a must-start in Showdown contests. Lil’Jordan Humphrey scored a TD last week. It was only his second catch of the year. I’ll wait until he turns into Big’Jordan before playing him.
Dawson Knox had a huge game last week. This matchup is nowhere near as strong for him. I still like him to approach 5-45 and maybe a score, but that will only get him the TE4 status here.
Adam Trautman also had an easy matchup in Week 11. He also has seen the lion’s share of looks and targets since Siemian took over. Travis Kelce is the only TE to do anything against this defense all season. Unfortunately, he somehow was ruled out Monday with an MCL injury. This means that we will see some combination of Nick Vannett and Juwan Johnson. I’m not going to run out to pay either of them outside of Showdown contests.
Before last week, I would’ve recommended the Bills defense here. Now, I am not so sure. I don’t hate the play but I’d rather pay less. As for New Orleans, considering Allen’s recent INT struggles, they could be in play. I just don’t know if I trust them against an offense with such potential boom-ability.
Here are my recommended lineups.
At DK: $5.9k for Derek Carr. $7.3K for D’Andre Swift. $6k for David Montgomery. $5.9k for Michael Gallup. $5.6k for Hunter Renfrow. $3.5k for Cedrick Wilson. $6.4k for Darren Waller. $6.2k for Mark Ingram at FLEX. $3k for the Bears defense.
At FD: $7.4k for Carr. $7.5k for Montgomery. $8k for Swift. $6.5k for Gallup. $6.2k for Renfrow. $5.7k for Cole Beasley. $6k for Dalton Schultz. $7.3k for Waller at FLEX. $5k for the Bears defense.
At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Carr, Dak Prescott at SF, Swift, and Montgomery at RB, Ingram at FLEX, Gallup, Renfrow, and Beasley at WR, and Waller at TE.
Quarterback
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $7,800 | $8,800 |
| Dak Prescott | $6,900 | $8,200 |
| Derek Carr | $5,900 | $7,400 |
| Trevor Siemian | $5,600 | $7,000 |
| Andy Dalton | $5,500 | $7,200 |
| Justin Fields | $5,400 | $7,200 |
| Jared Goff | $5,100 | $6,700 |
| Taysom Hill | $4,800 | $7,000 |
| Tim Boyle | $4,800 | $6,200 |
| David Blough | $4,600 | $6,100 |
Weekly strategy – Really the only QB that is not usable is the one who starts for Detroit. I probably won’t use Josh Allen because of the cost, but he isn’t a bad play. Based on price, Derek Carr is probably who I will use. I could also roll with whoever starts for the Bears.
Pay to Play:
Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. LV ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD)
I realize that Dallas may be without their top two WRs, but Dallas still has a strong offense and Vegas’ defense is the second-weakest on the board. Plus, there is still the outside chance that CeeDee Lamb plays.
Stay Away:
Trevor Siemian, Saints vs. BUF ($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD) Buffalo proved touchable last week … against the run. They still are elite against the pass. They have allowed SEVEN passing TDs all season. The next closest team has allowed 12. They also have allowed nearly 220 fewer yards than the next closest team. You can count on Siemian versus so-so defenses, not in a spot like this. If the Saints are going to succeed this week, it will come because of the running game.
Value Play:
Derek Carr, Raiders @ DAL ($5,900 DK, $7,400 FD)
Carr is facing a Dallas defense that has played better of late, but that is still no better than the middle of the pack against the pass. Dallas is prone to allowing big plays.
Running Back
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,000 | $8,400 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,800 | $9,000 |
| D’Andre Swift | $7,300 | $8,000 |
| Mark Ingram | $6,200 | $6,600 |
| David Montgomery | $6,000 | $7,500 |
| Josh Jacobs | $5,900 | $6,700 |
| Tony Pollard | $5,600 | $5,900 |
| Devin Singletary | $4,900 | $5,800 |
| Matt Breida | $4,800 | $5,300 |
| Zack Moss | $4,700 | $5,700 |
| Kenyan Drake | $4,600 | $5,600 |
| Khalil Herbert | $4,500 | $4,900 |
| Jalen Richard | $4,000 | $4,700 |
| Jamaal Williams | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Tony Jones | $4,000 | $4,800 |
Weekly strategy – David Montgomery has the best matchup this week. He will be my RB1. Ezekiel Elliott and D’Andre Swift are the two best options at RB2. I will likely use either Mark Ingram or Josh Jacobs at FLEX. Kenyan Drake, Devin Singletary, and Tony Pollard are the possible punts.
Pay to Play:
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. LV ($8,000 DK, $8,400 FD)
The price is high for Zeke, but Vegas has allowed more than their share of RB scores this year. Plus, with a short-handed passing game, Dallas will likely lean more on their RBs.
Stay Away:
All of the Bills, Bills @ NO (Devin Singletary $4,900 DK, $5,800 FD / Matt Breida $4800 DK, $5,300 FD / Zack Moss 4,700 DK, $5,700 FD)
Only two teams have allowed fewer total yards to the RB position than New Orleans. Plus, these three eat into each other’s touches, and all three rank behind Josh Allen in the Bills’ rushing game plan.
Value Play:
David Montgomery, Bears @ DET ($6,000 DK, $7,500 FD)
Detroit has allowed the league’s second-most 17 total RB touchdowns. Montgomery is capable of getting it done in the air or on the ground. He’ll do both here.
Wide Receiver
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | $7,900 | $8,300 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $6,900 | $7,700 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,000 | $7,000 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,900 | $6,500 |
| Darnell Mooney | $5,700 | $6,800 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,600 | $6,200 |
| Allen Robinson | $5,100 | $6,000 |
| Marquez Callaway | $5,000 | $5,700 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Kalif Raymond | $4,600 | $5,100 |
| Cole Beasley | $4,500 | $5,700 |
| Tre’Quan Smith | $4,400 | $5,900 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Bryan Edwards | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $3,800 | $5,400 |
| Deonte Harris | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| Gabriel Davis | $3,600 | $4,800 |
| Cedrick Wilson | $3,500 | $5,600 |
| DeSean Jackson | $3,100 | $5,000 |
| Damiere Byrd | $3,000 | $4,800 |
| Josh Reynolds | $3,000 | $4,900 |
| Kenny Stills | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Malik Turner | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Noah Brown | $3,000 | $4,700 |
Weekly strategy – The WR class on Thursday is not very nice. We have Stefon Diggs up top with a tough CB assignment. We have the top two WRs for Dallas doubtful to play. Basically, there are three sure-thing options: Hunter Renfrow, Darnell Mooney, and Michael Gallup. All three of those options would typically be no higher than WR2 on any team. I don’t mind Cole Beasley, Marquez Callaway, and Cedrick Wilson as pivots. Bryan Edwards and Deonte Harris are my only punt options.
Pay to Play:
Michael Gallup, Cowboys vs. LV ($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD)
Someone has to be Dak Prescott’s WR1 this week. Vegas has allowed only eight WR scores this season, but three of those have come in the last two weeks. The Raiders are definitely not performing as they did early on, and Gallup will get to benefit from it.
Stay Away:
Stefon Diggs, Bills @ NO ($7,900 DK, $8,300 FD) Diggs is usually a great play because he can beat even the best cornerbacks. This week will be a test of that theory as he will see a Marshon Lattimore shadow. When Diggs was with Minnesota, he often had Adam Thielen draw away some attention. In this contest, he needs to rely on the slightly less talented duo of Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Diggs does not get a salary reduction based on the matchup, making him virtually unusable if you want to suit up three starting RBs.
Value Play:
Cedrick Wilson, Cowboys vs. LV ($3,500 DK, $5,600 FD)
Wilson was already seeing an uptick in usage with Amari Cooper out. Now, he will likely be starting opposite Gallup. As I mentioned above, Vegas has slid in their coverage recently. At this price, it should be easy for Wilson to return 3x.
Tight End
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | $6,400 | $7,300 |
| Dalton Schultz | $5,300 | $6,000 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,200 | $6,100 |
| Dawson Knox | $4,400 | $5,900 |
| Cole Kmet | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Foster Moreau | $2,900 | $4,700 |
| Jimmy Graham | $2,800 | $4,400 |
| Juwan Johnson | $2,600 | $4,500 |
| Nick Vannett | $2,500 | $4,200 |
Weekly strategy – If you are not using Stefon Diggs at WR1, you can afford Darren Waller at TE. Otherwise, you are likely pivoting to Dalton Schultz, Dawson Knox, or maybe T.J. Hockenson. The only punt play worth considering is Cole Kmet.
Pay to Play:
Darren Waller, Raiders @ DAL ($6,400 DK, $7,300 FD)
Waller finally returned to the century mark in receiving yards last week, but he ceded a score to Foster Moreau. This week, Waller faces a Dallas defense that has performed better against the position in recent weeks, but that remains middle-of-the-road on the season, and that has struggled against most of the upper-echelon TEs.
Stay Away:
T.J. Hockenson, Lions vs. CHI ($5,200 DK, $6,100 FD)
Hockenson has played decent this year, but nowhere near where he was projected to based on the draft stock expended on him. This isn’t a great matchup for the position, and he has a bunch of stiffs throwing him the ball. If you need to start him, it better be with Jared Goff under center in some sort of “burn-your-money” stack.
Value Play:
Cole Kmet, Bears @ DET ($3,700 DK, $5,000 FD)
We will continue to pick on the Lions here. Prior to last week, Kmet was on an upward trajectory. Then Jimmy Graham had to go out and suck up all of Kmet’s value. On the season, Kmet trails only Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson among the Bears’ skill position players.