The Miami Dolphins (3-7) head to MetLife Stadium Sunday for a Week 11 showdown with the AFC East rival New York Jets (2-7). The kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Dolphins vs. Jets odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Miami has won back-to-back games over the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens after losing its previous seven games.
The Dolphins have floated between QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett throughout the season, mostly because of Tagovailoa’s health issues. Miami is 4-5-1 ATS and 4-6 O/U.
New York got rolled 45-17 last week at home by the Buffalo Bills as 13.5-point favorites.
Earlier this week, the Jets announced they were signing and starting QB Joe Flacco over QB Zach Wilson who’s still sidelined with a knee injury. New York is 2-7 ATS and 6-3 O/U.
The Dolphins crushed the Jets in both regular-season meetings last season by a combined score of 44-3 and the Under cashed in both contests.
Miami is 3-1 overall and 4-0 ATS vs. New York since hiring head coach Brian Flores at the beginning of 2019.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Week 11 picks and predictions
Dolphins at Jets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:00 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Dolphins -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Jets +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins -3.5 (-110) | Jets +3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Dolphins at Jets key injuries
Dolphins
- DE Christian Wilkins (quadriceps) questionable
- LB Andrew Van Ginkel (back) questionable
Jets
- QB Zach Wilson (knee) doubtful
- G Alijah Vera-Tucker (toe) questionable
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Dolphins at Jets odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Dolphins 27, Jets 10
Money line
BET 1 unit on the DOLPHINS (-190) because I refuse to believe Flacco is going to come off the streets and beat a Miami team that has owned New York since Flores became the head coach.
There really isn’t even a pro-Jets case to make in this spot aside from the Dolphins (-190) shouldn’t be this big of a favorite given their record.
Flacco started the Dolphins-Jets meeting last season that Miami won 24-0. In that game, the Jets were plus-one in turnover differential, converted two fourth-down attempts, had more time of possession, averaged more than five yards per rush and were still shut out.
Also, Miami’s defense has stepped up in recent weeks after a very disappointing start to the season, and I expect them to smother this terrible New York offense.
Lastly, both Miami’s money line and spread were instantly hit by “sharp” money as soon as news broke that Flacco would be New York’s starting quarterback. The implied win probability of DOLPHINS (-190) is 65.5%, and Miami wins this game at least seven out of 10 times.
Against the spread
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Dolphins -3.5 (-110) because Miami should certainly cover this spread.
However, I’d rather lay it with the Dolphins (-190) and not fuss with the points. It would be kind of shocking if New York was still in this game in the second half. But, still, I’ll play it safe and bet Miami straight up.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 44.5 (-112) for a ton of obvious reasons. That said, most of the market is barreling into the Under based on the same logic, and I hate following a crowd of people in sports betting.
Furthermore, we know what Miami’s offense is, but New York’s defense is a bit of a wild card. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins rank 28th in offensive DVOA and second in offensive performance variance.
The Jets rank dead-last in defensive DVOA and 26th in defensive performance variance. New York’s defense should be able to put together a game plan to slow down this awful Miami offense. But, counting on the Jets to do anything right hasn’t been profitable for years now.
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