The Washington Wizards (10-4) roll into “South Beach” Thursday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Miami Heat (10-5) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Both of these teams are playing in the second of a back-to-back. Washington had its five-game win streak snapped Wednesday in a 97-87 loss at the Charlotte Hornets. while Miami rallied back from a 15-point first-quarter deficit to pound the New Orleans Pelicans 113-98 as a 6.5-point home favorite.
The Wizards are 9-5 ATS and 4-10 O/U with the eighth-best net rating (plus-3.8). The Heat are 11-4 ATS and 9-6 O/U with the 3rd-best net rating (plus-7.8).
Miami won two of three regular-season meetings with Washington last season but the Wizards were 2-1 ATS in those games and the Under went 2-1.
Wizards at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Wizards +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Heat -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +6.5 (-110) | Heat -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 206.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Wizards at Heat key injuries
Wizards
- PG Spencer Dinwiddie (rest) doubtful
- PF Davis Bertans (ankle) out
- PF Rui Hachimura (personal) out
- C Thomas Bryant (knee) out
Heat
- C Bam Adebayo (knee)
Wizards at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 106, Wizards 97
Money line
PASS since Miami is the right side but the Heat (-290) are too pricey to bet outright. Washington is due for regression whereas you could argue Miami is better than its record indicates.
The Wizards have the seventh-best win differential according to net efficiency and the Heat rank 22nd in win differential according to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time from its stat tracking.
What is Washington’s most impressive victory? The Wizards beat the current 6-seed Cleveland Cavaliers but that’s the only team with a winning record Washington has defeated. Miami has toppled the Utah Jazz (twice), Dallas Mavericks, Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the HEAT -6.5 (-110) because Miami does a good job defending what Washington does often and this is a better spot for the Heat.
Whe Wizards attempt the ninth-highest volume of mid-range shots (CleaningTheGlass.com) and the Heat have the fourth-best defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range attempts.
The absence of Dinwiddie would be meaningful to the line. Miami can focus more of its perimeter defensive bandwidth on defending Washington guard Bradley Beal who’s in the 97th percentile of guards at mid-range shot volume.
Miami has the second-highest cover rate in the second of a back-to-back at 10-3-1 ATS since the beginning of last season. Plus the Wizards are 0-2 ATS when being spotted 5-7 points and Miami is 6-0 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.
My reasons for the “LEAN” to the HEAT -6.5 (-110) are they’ll most certainly be the more popular side and I’d rather bet on Miami coming off a loss rather than a win.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 206.5 (-108) for a tiny wager if at all because we are getting to the party late and I prefer Miami’s spread more than the total in this contest. Wizards-Heat opened with a 210.5-point total but was immediately steamed down by early action.
However, both teams rank 23rd or slower in pace and rank seventh or better in defensive efficiency. Also, Washington has gone Under the total in seven straight games and three of the previous four Wizards-Heat meetings have gone Under the total.
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