Week 11 around the Big Ten saw two division races inch closer to the finish line with both divisions still up for grabs coming into the final two weeks of the regular season. Unfortunately for Penn State, the Nittany Lions have officially been eliminated from contention after letting a possible win against Michigan slip through their fingers while the Wolverines remain in a great spot to host a possible de facto Big Ten East Division championship game in two weeks.
Penn State needed a win against Michigan and to win out to work their way into a crazy tiebreaking scenario, but that is now off the table entirely. Instead, Penn State will get one more chance to play a potential spoiler in the final week of the season if Michigan State can manage to come up with a big win next weekend.
Let’s take a look at the Big Ten East race with two weeks remaining.
Big Ten East
Remaining teams in contention: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State
Ohio State is the only unbeaten team left standing in Big Ten play (the only loss suffered by the Buckeyes came against Oregon in non-conference play), but Ohio State has the most challenging end to the season. The Buckeyes are hosting Michigan State (9-1, 6-1 in Big Ten) this week and visiting Michigan (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) in the final week of the season. So this weekend’s game between Ohio State and Michigan State has the potential to eliminate the Spartans from the running or leave things a bit more complicated coming into the final week of the season.
Ohio State could actually clinch the Big Ten East next weekend with a win over Michigan State and a Michigan loss at Maryland.
Michigan State already owns a head-to-head tiebreaker with Michigan and would have the leg up in the division race going into the final week of the season if it could add a head-to-head tiebreaker with Ohio State. The Spartans would win the Big Ten East with a win over the Buckeyes and then Penn State the following week. Michigan State cannot lose a second Big Ten game unless Michigan loses twice
Michigan also has to win its final two games of the season but is also thrown in the uncomfortable position of having to root for an Ohio State win this weekend against Michigan State. No matter the scenario, Michigan has to beat Ohio State to either finish in sole possession of first place or win a tiebreaker with the Buckeyes.
In summary…
- If Ohio State wins against Michigan State and Michigan, Ohio State wins the Big Ten East.
- If Ohio State wins against Michigan State and Michigan loses to Maryland, Ohio State wins the Big Ten East.
- If Michigan State wins against Ohio State and Penn State, Michigan State wins the Big Ten East.
- If Michigan State wins against Ohio State, Michigan loses to Maryland, Michigan wins against Ohio State, then Michigan State wins the Big Ten East.
- If Michigan wins against Maryland and Ohio State, and Michigan State loses to Penn State, then Michigan wins the Big Ten East.
Got all of that? Good. Now let’s take a look at that Big Ten West…