The Utah Jazz (8-4) hosts the Miami Heat (7-5) Saturday for a 5 p.m. ET tip-off at the Vivint Smart Home Arena. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Utah has lost three of its past four games (1-3 ATS) with the latest being a 111-100 loss to the Indiana Pacers as 10.5-point home favorites Thursday. The Jazz are still second in net rating (plus-7.9) despite the recent losses and are 7-5 ATS and 3-9 O/U.
Miami has lost four of its past five games including a current three-game losing skid. Which includes a pair of three-point losses vs. the Los Angeles basketball teams and a double-digit loss at the Denver Nuggets. Miami is 8-4 ATS and 7-5 O/U with the third-best net rating (plus-7.0).
The Heat’s lone win over the last five games came against the Jazz last Saturday. Each team’s star player was sensational in that game: Utah’s Donovan Mitchell scored 37 points on 50.0% shooting with 7 assists and 2 steals and Miami’s Jimmy Butler put up 27 points on 73.3% with 6 assists.
Heat at Jazz odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Jazz -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +6.5 (-107) | Jazz -6.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Heat at Jazz key injuries
Heat
- SG Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
Jazz
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Heat at Jazz odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Jazz 118, Heat 106
Money line
PASS since Utah is the right side in this one but the Jazz (-290) is too far out of my price range. Also, Miami just beat Utah at home last weekend and it’s tough to beat the same team twice in a short time period.
Against the spread
BET the JAZZ -6.5 (-120) for 1 unit now because if Butler gets announced out then Utah’s spread will increase, but if he plays, I still think the Jazz can cover this number.
In their last meeting, Heat sixth man Tyler Herro erupted for a team-high 29 points off the bench on 61.1% shooting and a bulk of the damage was done with Mitchell guarding him.
Herro shot 75.0% with Mitchell on him and created 21 team points. When you swap sides, Mitchell only shot 40.0% with Herro defending him and created seven team points.
However, Mitchell returned fire on the Heat and scorched Bam Adebayo after Miami switched on picks. Mitchell created 30 team points and shot 80.0% from the field when Adebayo defended him. Mitchell’s success off screens will continue in this game and it frees up looks for shooters.
The difference in the final regular-season Heat-Jazz game will be Utah’s bench shooting better at home and Herro cooling off a bit in Utah. And if Butler is out then the Jazz can focus more of their defensive bandwidth on Herro.
Over/Under
Utah shoots a ton of 3-pointers and Miami allows a lot of 3-point attempts. I like how the Jazz’s offense stacks up against the Heat’s defense. Utah should duplicate its 60.8% effective field goal shooting effort from its first meeting with Miami.
On top of that, the Jazz have the highest offensive FT/FGA rate in the Association and the Heat have the 20th-ranked defensive FT/FGA rate.
“BET” OVER 214.5 (-108) because I think this total should be around 220.
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