The Baltimore Ravens (6-2) visit South Beach in Week 10 to play the Miami Dolphins (2-7) on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Ravens vs. Dolphins odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Baltimore rallied back from a double-digit deficit (again) to beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9, 34-31 in overtime, as a 6-point home favorite.
The Ravens outgained the Vikings 500-318 in total yardage, had 23 more first downs (36-13) and had far more time of possession (46:04-23:40). Baltimore is 3-5 ATS and 5-3 O/U this season.
Miami handled business at home against the Houston Texans 17-9 in what was the least discussed game of Week 9. There were nine turnovers between both teams and neither team gained more than 275 total yards. The win snapped a six-game losing skid for Miami who is 3-5-1 ATS and 4-5 O/U.
Ravens at Dolphins odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:12 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Ravens -370 (bet $370 to win $100) | Dolphins +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
- Against the spread (ATS): Ravens -7.5 (-108) | Dolphins +7.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Ravens at Dolphins key injuries
Bills
- RB Latavius Murray (ankle) questionable
- WR Marquise Brown (back) questionable
- WR Sammy Watkins (thigh) questionable
- RT Patrick Mekari (ankle) questionable
- TE Nick Boyle (knee) questionable
- DT Brandon Williams (shoulder) questionable
Dolphins
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (finger) questionable
- C Greg Mancz (ankle) questionable
- LB Jerome Baker (knee) questionable
- WR Devante Parker (shoulder) IR-out
- S Brandon Jones (ankle) questionable
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Ravens at Dolphins odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Ravens 24, Dolphins 22
Money line
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Dolphins (+280) because I “like” Miami getting the points and will sometimes sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover.
However, the lopsidedness of this matchup is accurately accounted for in the pricing and the Ravens pummeled the Dolphins 59-10 in Week 1 of 2019 when they last met. Lamar went on to win MVP and Miami finished 5-11 that season.
Granted, this was two years ago but Miami has a lot of the same players from that defense and a whooping that bad could still be eating at the Dolphins.
I’d be hesitant to include Baltimore in money line parlays, teasers and survivor league entries. The Ravens will be wagered on in a bevy of ways and you know the House is going to need the Dolphins to pull off an upset.
Since the House usually wins, the Ravens-Dolphins have all the makings of a “trap game”.
Against the spread
BET the DOLPHINS +7.5 (-112) for 1 unit because we can fade a market that’s betting the Ravens at an 80-plus percent clip, according to Pregame.com.
Lamar’s end-of-the-game heroics this season are great if you have “Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP” tickets or Baltimore futures tickets in your portfolio. However, are they great if you’re laying it with the Ravens on the road?
Baltimore has three double-digit come-from-behind victories this year and Lamar is tied atop the NFL in game-winning drives (four) and fourth-quarter comebacks (four).
The bottom line is the Ravens tend to go down big in games and Lamar has to bail them out. Also, the Dolphins have played in four one-score games.
Lastly, Baltimore’s defense ain’t what it was (ranked 26th in defensive DVOA by Football Outsiders) and the Ravens are 21st in performance variance. There’s a good chance Miami catches a banged-up Baltimore team snoozing on a short week at home.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 46.5 (-108) because there’s more money wagered on the Under while more bets have been placed on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wise in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
However, my predicted score is aligned closely with the oddsmakers’ projected total so there’s not any value in me betting the Under.
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