With the loss to Kentucky two weeks ago, Florida essentially forfeited any chance of making the College Football Playoff. The Gators have two losses at the midway point of the season, and they’ve still yet to play the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs. UF is now very likely to finish third in the SEC East, and an appearance in the College Football Playoff is reaching pipe dream status this year.
FiveThirtyEight’s CFP model concurs, and it gives Florida a less than 1% chance of winning the SEC and a 2% chance of making the playoff. Right now, UF’s best chance is to win out and hope for chaos above it, particularly in the SEC Championship.
Of course, for any of these slim odds to even matter, the Gators have to beat LSU this weekend in Baton Rouge. A loss in that game mathematically eliminates them from SEC contention, and it would drop the CFP odds to below 1%. Meanwhile, a win doesn’t nothing to significantly shift the odds.
Winning out, however, would. If the Gators go 10-2 with a victory over Georgia, their CFP odds get a bit better. First of all, with a win over UGA and no other losses, Florida would have a 5% chance to win the SEC. Still not great, but significantly better than it is currently. However, in that circumstance, UF’s CFP odds shoot up to 15%. Per the model, it has a 10% chance of winning out.
This certainly isn’t an ideal circumstance for Florida to find itself in. But this has been a chaotic season of college football, and it’s as good a year as any for a two-loss team to find its way in. If the Gators can take care of business on the field, they’re not entirely out of the race. At least, not according to the math.
[lawrence-related id=57510,57461,57458,57441,57435]
[listicle id=57477]
Follow us @GatorsWire on Twitter and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.