The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants Monday for the third game of their National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 9:37 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. tied the NLDS with a 9-2 win over San Francisco in Saturday’s Game 2. Every Dodgers hitter in their starting lineup had a hit, aside from 3B Justin Turner. Starting LHP Julio Urias‘ RBI single in the top of the second inning was the first run scored in the game.
Series: Tied 1-1.
LHP Alex Wood takes the ball for the Giants. He was 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA (138 2/3 IP, 59 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 over 26 regular-season starts.
- Second-half: 2-1 with a 4.07 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.23 WHIP and 5.4 K/BB across 11 starts.
- Wood was 0-2 in three regular-season starts against L.A., with a 4.76 ERA (17 IP, 9 ER), 1.35 WHIP and 7.3 K/BB.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (128 PA): 7.22 FIP with a .313 batting average (BA), .435 wOBA, .580 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 18.0 K% and 92.6 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Dodgers. He was 15-4 with a 2.46 ERA (179 1/3 IP, 49 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 across 30 regular-season starts for L.A. and the Washington Nationals.
- Since joining the Dodgers (Aug. 4): 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA (68 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 over 11 starts.
- Scherzer earned a no-decision against San Francisco while pitching for the Nationals after exiting due to a groin injury with just 6 pitches.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (122 PA): 2.94 FIP with a .168 BA, .259 wOBA, .299 xSLG, 38.5 K% and 88.3 mph EV.
Giants at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Dodgers -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-130) | Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Dodgers 4, Giants 1
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the DODGERS (-205) because Wood’s pitching peripherals against L.A.’s lineup are scary and the Dodgers are a top-10 lineup against left-handed pitching across several advanced hitting metrics.
San Francisco’s bullpen might have a slight edge in the relief pitching matchup, but Scherzer is one of the best big-game pitchers of his generation and may win the 2021 NL Cy Young award.
On top of that, Scherzer’s advanced pitching numbers correspond with his outstanding basic stats. Wood grades in the 33rd percentile for hard-hit rate and the 29th percentile for EV.
That said, L.A.’s money line is appropriately priced and a vast majority of the betting splits are on the Dodgers so it’s a chalky play. Maybe go a little lighter on the DODGERS (-205) and save some cash for the Under.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Dodgers -1.5 (+105) offer far too small of a payout considering the Giants were 34-5 ATS as road underdogs during the regular season.
Scherzer hasn’t been that good in his past three starts. He pitched only 4 1/3 innings in the NL Wild Card play-in game and gave up five earned runs in each of his last two regular-season starts. That’s enough to keep me away from L.A.’s run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 7.5 (-125) for 1 unit because we are getting “reverse line movement” with the total and the weather forecast is predicting nearly 15 mph winds blowing in from left-centerfield.
According to Pregame.com at the time of writing, more than 80% of the cash and nearly two-thirds of the action is on the Over but the Under is far pricier. What that tells me is the House is taking “sharp” action on the Under and are willing to entice more pro-Over money.
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