The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Bristol Motor Speedway for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race Saturday. The green flag is set to drop at approximately 7:35 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.
This will be the first race on the pavement at Bristol Motor Speedway this season as you might recall we had a dirt-surface race March 29, which was won by Penske Racing’s Joey Logano.
The last driver to win on the pavement was Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick last Sept. 19, in the night race.
2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race: What you need to know
- Martin Truex Jr., of Joe Gibbs Racing, is on the pole for Saturday’s race. He hasn’t had a lot of success at this track in the past, however, posting just two top-5 runs, three top-10 finishes and no wins with a 20.73 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 30 career Cup starts.
- MTJ’s teammate Kyle Busch has dominated at Bristol. The driver of the No. 18 machine leads all active drivers with eight wins, 14 top-5 finishes, 19 top-10 runs and 2,592 laps led with a 12.77 AFP.
- Kurt Busch is second to his little brother with six career victories at Bristol, and he has 21 top-10 finishes in his 40 career Cup starts.
- Harvick won last summer’s night race, and he is one of just four active drivers with at least three career Cup wins at BMS. The Busch Bros. and Penske’s Brad Keselowski (3) are the others.
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Who is going to win the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race?
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
KYLE BUSCH (+380) is the favorite here. His brother KURT BUSCH (+1500) has decent odds considering he has six career victories in Thunder Valley. Take advantage.
KYLE LARSON (+425) has never won in 12 career Cup starts, and he has just two finishes inside the Top 5, or 16.7 percent of his starts. However, he has a respectable 14.42 AFP, but I’d look elsewhere for bettor values.
CHASE ELLIOTT (+750) is also searching for his first-ever victory at this track. He has 10 career Cup runs, with half of his starts resulting in finishes of 10th or better. He also has 310 laps led under his belt already, and he leads all active drivers with a 12.1 AFP.
Long-shot and prop bets for the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Besides Kurt Busch to win, which is worth a small-unit play in and of itself, take KURT BUSCH TOP 10 FINISH (-135) for a solid value.
KEVIN HARVICK TOP 10 FINISH (-200) is a little on the pricey side, but he has 20 top-10 finishes in his 40 career Cup starts, so it’s a good bet.
I also really like the prop for car number of race winner. Play OVER 11.5 (+100) at even money, and if the race winner has a car number of 12 or higher, you’ll win. That includes eight-time winner Kyle Busch, although his brother Kurt, Elliott or Larson are not included.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
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