The Philadelphia Phillies (68-64) and Washington Nationals (55-76) close out a three-game NL East series Wednesday. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Nola is 7-7 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 over 148 2/3 IP through 26 starts.
- Owns a 3.43 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over his last 42 IP.
- Has divergent home/road splits this season and over the last three years. Has posted a 2.97 ERA at home and a 4.99 mark on the road since 2019.
RHP Paolo Espino is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. Espino is 4-4 with a 4.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, and 1.7 BB/9 across 80 2/3 IP through 13 starts and 16 relief appearances.
- Current Philly bats own a small-sample .898 OPS against him.
- Allowed 6 runs on 8 hits over 5 innings in an Aug. 4 start against the Phillies.
- Has been aided by a .269 batting average on balls in play.
Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Phillies 5, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
The Phillies have won the first two games of this series and five in a row overall. Philadelphia has scored 19 runs in this series and 47 over its last six games.
Washington’s pitching since the All-Star break has been atrocious. The Nats have allowed 1.98 HR per game en route to posting a 5.82 ERA in their last 42 games.
The Phillies are 12-6 against the Nats on the season and are plus-26 in run differential over the 18 games.
Nola comes out better on the “stuff-meter” than he does with his earned run average. His 24.1% K-BB rate is elite, and he has expected-ERA numbers mostly under 3.50. The Phillies have just owned the Nats this season, and the pricing here isn’t bad.
BACK PHILADELPHIA (-170).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
I peg the price on the money line to be slightly more value than what pops up here, but PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+100) is a close second.
Over/Under (O/U)
Humid conditions with an outward breeze are in the forecast. This game could well get postponed by heavy rains, but the Nola angle and pricing chip away at any leverage here.
PASS.
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