The Houston Astros (77-53) and Seattle Mariners (70-61) meet Monday at 10:10 p.m. ET to open a three-game AL West series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Luis Garcia is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 10-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 over 123 1/3 IP through 22 starts and two relief appearances.
- Threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his last start and owns a 1.99 ERA over his last four starts.
- Has struggled on the road with a 4.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 11-5 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 over 140 IP across 24 starts.
- Current Houston batters own an aggregate .936 OPS against Flexen. The Astros scored 7 runs in 4 IP against Flexen July 27.
- Has benefited from a 9.0% home run/fly ball rate and has recently been allowing hard contact more frequently.
Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:44 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Mariners +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+102) | Mariners +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Astros 6, Mariners 3
Money line (ML)
Houston is 4-1 over its last five games and is 7-3 with an .834 OPS over its last 10 games. That stretch includes taking two of three games from the Mariners Aug. 20-22. The Houston victories against Seattle were by scores of 12-3 and 15-1. The Astros are 8-5, with a plus-27 run differential, against the Mariners on the season.
Seattle is coming off losing three of four games to the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. However, the Mariners had been 10-3 over their previous 13 games before that series.
The Mariners are 38-28 at home but with a -13 run differential in those games. The reason for that is the root of why Seattle continues to be a solid fade candidate: the Mariners are playing .643 ball in 1-run games and .483 ball in every other type of contest.
In a game with some Over lean, PASS on the money line and shoot for a plus-money payoff on the run line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Houston is 11-2 across its last 13 series openers on the road; that includes wins against the likes of the Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.
Seattle’s bullpen has registered an unsupportable 3.16 ERA in August. A .275 batting average on balls in play has tamped down what could easily be an ERA more than a run higher. Mix in some Flexen fade and the fact that Houston has hit him well in the past and you can peg the ASTROS -1.5 (+102) as a play with some value.
Over/Under (O/U)
There are plenty of cross signals in parsing this wager, so consider a partial unit as your outlay.
A sliver of a lean combined with an attractive price makes for VALUE ON THE OVER 8.5 (-105).
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