The Pittsburgh Pirates (42-78 ) conclude a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (74-46) Wednesday. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Pirates vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Pirates RHP JT Brubaker (4-12, 5.13 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 112 1/3 IP.
- Has a 7.61 ERA across 23 2/3 IP through five starts since the All-Star break, and allowed 2 or more home runs in five of his last seven starts.
- Owns a 6.05 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 58 IP across 11 road starts.
- Allowed 3 ER on 5 H with 6 K over 4 2/3 IP in a home loss to the Dodgers June 8.
While the Dodgers have yet to officially name a starter RHP Mitch White (0-1, 3.86 ERA) is expected to handle the bulk of the innings. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 28 IP across two starts and 14 relief appearances.
- Last pitched Thursday at the Philadephia Phillies and logged 4 IP with 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 4 K in Los Angeles’s 2-1 loss.
- Recorded a 2.25 ERA across 24 IP through five starts and three relief appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Pirates at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Dodgers -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (+110) | Dodgers -1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Los Angeles 5, Pittsburgh 3
Money line (ML)
The Dodgers have won nine of their last 10 games and have a franchise-record 15 straight wins over the Pirates – a streak that dates back to June 2018.
We shouldn’t anticipate a different outcome Wednesday; Los Angeles has the third-best home winning percentage in baseball and Pittsburgh has the fourth-worst road winning percentage.
The issue here is with the -300 pricetag. It’s just not a good wager to risk three times your potential return, so let’s PASS on the money line and look for value elsewhere.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
While Los Angeles’s bats have been quiet through the first two games of this series they still have a sizable advantage at the plate.
The Dodgers are top four in MLB by OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and top five in each of those categories against all pitchers in August. They also get to face Brubaker on the road where his ERA is nearly 2 full runs higher than at home.
While we’re likely to see a heavy dose of relief pitchers from L.A. Wednesday that shouldn’t be a concern. Pittsburgh is one of the worst road-hitting teams in the majors and L.A.’s relievers lead the league in FIP and xFIP, and are second in SIERA this month.
BACK LOS ANGELES -1.5 (-135).
Over/Under (O/U)
We shouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to do much damage Wednesday, and situational trends seem to point to this being a lower-scoring game.
Both teams side slightly to the Under in non-division games, the Dodgers slightly to the Under as home favorites and the Pirates slightly to the Under as road underdogs.
This feels like a very sharp number but I’m going to have a slight “LEAN” to UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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