The Chicago Cubs (52-69) play the second game of a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (65-55) Tuesday at Great American Ball Park with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincinnati clubbed Chicago 14-5 in Monday’s series opener as Reds’ NL Rookie of the Year favorite 3B Jonathan India went 3-for-6 with a home run, a double and 5 RBIs.
Season series: Reds lead 10-4.
RHP Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs. He is 13-5 with a 4.15 ERA (138 2/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 24 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 17-4, with 4 IP, 9 ER, 11 H, 1 BB and 3 K Thursday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Hendricks has earned two no-decisions against the Reds this season with a 5.23 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 2 BB and 9 K.
- vs. Reds on current roster (230 PA): 5.24 FIP with a .297 batting average (BA), .371 wOBA, .415 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.7 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez gets the nod for the Reds. He is 8-3 with a 3.95 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 14 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 12-3, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Thursday at the Atlanta Braves.
- Gutiérrez is 1-1 this season against Chicago with a 2.38 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Cubs on current roster (20 PA): 9.76 FIP with a .313 BA, .452 wOBA, .462 xSLG, 10.0 K% and 85.6 mph EV.
Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Reds -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+111)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Reds 9, Cubs 4
Money line (ML)
PASS with a “lean” on the Reds (-180) even though Cincinnati is getting “sharp” line movement and Chicago is in the midst of a 12-game losing skid.
At this price point, I’d be more interested in parlaying Cincy’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus- or even-money payout.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+111) for a half unit only because Cincy is just 19-28 ATS as a home favorite, Chicago is 28-18 ATS as a road underdog and there’s “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the Cubs’ direction.
However, the Reds are 31-22 ATS against NL Central foes, the Cubs are 23-31 ATS in divisional games and Hendricks has been terrible in his last five starts against the Reds and in Cincy’s home ballpark.
Hendricks is 0-3 with a 9.26 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 24 ER) and 20/4 K/BB with 8 home runs allowed over his last five starts against the Reds. Also, Hendricks is 2-5 with a 6.16 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 42 ER) and 1.45 WHIP across 11 starts in Cincinnati’s home park.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit because there are so many Over-friendly trends in this matchup, Cincinnati’s lineup is tied with the best WAR in August and Chicago’s pitching staff has the worst WAR this month.
That said, all of the previous information is baked into the line and nearly 70% of the action is on the Over but there’s RLM heading towards the Under, according to Pregame.com. This is why I only “LEAN” OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit.
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