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Florida kicks off the 2021 college football season in just over three weeks, and that means the final preseason SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly are here. The SP+ rankings are an analytics system that takes returning production, recent recruiting and recent history into account to make projections about college football teams.
Though completely based on numbers and not human emotion, the SP+ rankings resulted in the Gators landing in a spot very similar to where they’re placed in the preseason polls at the No. 12 spot.
Florida receives a number rating of 20.7, 0.3 behind No. 11 North Carolina and 0.5 ahead of No. 13 Washington. UF is the fourth-highest ranked SEC team behind No. 1 Alabama, No. 5 Georgia and No. 9 Texas A&M.
The Gators can owe their relatively high ranking almost entirely to their offense, which is projected to be the sixth-best in the nation. Florida has to replace a lot, including quarterback Kyle Trask, his three leading receivers and two starters on the offensive line, but Dan Mullen has proven that he can coach a successful offense.
Likely new starting quarterback Emory Jones‘ experience on the field is limited, but he’s going into his fourth year with the team and should find success in an offense that should look to establish the run more.
The Gators may need a lot of production from Jones, as the defense could once again be a cause for concern. The SP+ ranks the UF defense as the 35th best unit in the country.
Overall, Connelly’s numbers project a slight dropoff from last season, in which Florida finished sixth in the SP+. It had the fourth-best offense and No. 33 defense last season, according to the rankings.
Though the Gators will hope for defensive improvement in 2020, asking the offense to replicate a record-setting season from Trask seems like a tall order. This is a bit of a transition year in Gainesville, but it’s still one in which Florida is expected to be competitive within the SEC.
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