“Fade the public” is the most popular sports handicapping angle because of its simplicity and practicality. The concept is easy: Bet the opposite of the more popular side because the recreational sports bettor typically loses.
This is solid logic and a good foundation with which to start when handicapping a particular game but it can be costly if blindly applied.
Below, we’ll discuss how to access the data needed to make a contrarian play against the market and the best spots to employ a “fade the public” strategy.
Also see: Sports Betting Terms and Definitions
How to find betting splits
There’s almost an overload of accessible websites that show the betting splits of a daily slate in a particular sport but, luckily, most of them are free.
My personal favorite is Pregame.com, which shows the opening and current lines, as well as the cash and total bets placed percentages for both the sides and totals of every game. Other free options include TheSpread.com and VSiN.com.
Also, I recommend following the Twitter accounts of the sportsbooks you wager with because the oddsmakers themselves usually post betting splits for key games on a given slate.
When to use the ‘fade the public’ angle
A sweet spot for being a contrarian bettor is being on the same side as the Pros and betting against the Joes. Typically, the presumed “sharp” money is the handle column in the table and “public” represents the total bets column.
Example:
- Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (65% of the money, 33% of tickets)
- Baltimore Ravens +1.5 (35% of the money, 67% of the tickets)
The professional bettors are backing the Chiefs in this mock betting split but the public is betting on the Ravens. This would be a good spot to use the “fade the public” angle since the money is flowing in the opposite direction.
Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
The best time to incorporate a “fade the public” angle into your handicap is with the games that draw more public action. These spots include almost all primetime NFL games, March Madness and the NBA, MLB and NHL postseasons.
While the strategy of “fading the public” is simple and sound, it’s often misused or overused. In fact, an argument can be made that overdoing it is more “square” than never knowingly taking a contrarian position.
A bettor who perhaps is a little trigger happy with the “fade the public” angle would be mistaken if they were to use that approach when wagering on most regular-season NBA, MLB or NHL games.
For example, most recreational bettors aren’t rushing to the sportsbook to wager on a Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins game in the middle of July. There’s a chance the “sharp” and “public” money are one and the same.
As the legalization of sports gambling grows the market becomes sharper and it’s less profitable to “fade the public”. However, since consistently making money when sports betting is rather difficult, a contrarian approach will always have merit.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1374]