The start of the 2021 NFL regular season is looming less than a month away and it’s time to delve deeper into some of the statistical futures bets. Below, we look at the odds of the quarterbacks to finish as the 2021 passing yards leader, with NFL picks, predictions and best bets.
Thanks largely to Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes sitting out his team’s regular-season finale, Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson led the league with 4,823 passing yards in 2020. Mahomes finished 83 yards behind with 4,740 but paced all qualified passers with an average of 316 passing yards per game.
Watson was the only other qualified quarterback to average at least 300 aerial yards per outing last season with 301.4, but there is still legitimate doubt in early August as to which team he’ll play for — or even if he’ll play at all — given his offseason of trade demands and off-field legal issues.
Former New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees won the passing yards title five times in the past decade, including a three-year run from 2014-16, but he’s retired now, leaving the mantle clear for the next generation — and, of course, 44-year-old-and-still-slinging Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady.
2021 NFL passing yards leader picks
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday, Aug. 10, at 2:20 p.m. ET.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+300)
What’s not to like about the clear favorite on this list? The K.C. Wunderkind owns a career average of 307.7 passing yards per game, looks to be fully healthy after offseason foot surgery and has a rebuilt offensive line in front of him. He’s also sure to be highly motivated after the Chiefs were held without a touchdown in February’s Super Bowl LV beatdown against the Bucs.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+750)
The then 24-year-old threw for a career-high 4,544 yards last year in his breakout 2020 capaign. Continued progression could easily put him atop the 2021 leaderboard.
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Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (+500)
He was leading the league with 1,856 passing yards (a whopping 371.2 per outing) before his season-ending leg fracture in Week 5. A now-healed Dak is back with an impressive cast of targets in Big D.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford (+1000)
The veteran threw for at least 4,000 yards in eight of his final nine full seasons with the Detroit Lions and now joins forces with offensive guru Sean McVay and a better collection of weapons in L.A.
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2021 NFL passing yards leader picks: Long shot
New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston (+5000)
WR Michael Thomas’ health situation is obviously a concern but don’t overlook the 2019 passing yards leader (5,109 yards with Tampa Bay) as a long-shot bet if he wins the post-Brees starting gig in the Big Easy.
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