The Washington Nationals (50-62) stop by Citi Field Tuesday to start a three-game series with the New York Mets (56-55) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Nationals lead 5-3.
RHP Paolo Espino takes the mound for the Nationals. Espino is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in nine starts and 16 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 9-5, with 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K against the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday.
- 2021 road splits: 0-0 with a 4.71 ERA (21 IP, 11 ER), 1.19 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB in two starts and 10 bullpen outings.
RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his third start for the Mets. Carrasco is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 9 K this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K in New York’s 5-3 win at the Miami Marlins Wednesday.
Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-112) | Mets -1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
Mets 6, Nationals 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets (-250) since they are obviously the right side because New York is 12 games above .500 against righty starters and 13 games above .500 at home.
Furthermore, there’s no way I can risk two-and-a-half times my potential return on a Mets team that’s in the midst of a freefall.
New York is 2-8 in the last 10 games, 7-13 in the past 20, and has fallen 2.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the NL East.
It would appear this is your typically cursed Mets season but since Carrasco is in his first season in New York maybe he hasn’t gotten the memo.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the METS -1.5 (-108) for a tiny wager because New York has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen, starting pitching and hitting) and is obviously a better price point.
Washington also moved several quality bullpen arms at the trade deadline. Not so coincidently, the Nationals bullpen has the third-most blown saves, second-worst SIERA, second-worst xFIP and second-worst K-BB% since the trade deadline.
It’s only a “lean” because despite New York being buyers at the trade deadline and Washington sellers, the Mets lineup has been much worse than the Nationals since then.
Also, New York has the fourth-worst cover rate against divisional foes at 19-30 ATS and is 13-28 ATS as a home favorite whereas Washington is 21-19 ATS as a road underdog.
For instance, Washington is middle of the pack in hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and WAR while New York ranks in the bottom 6 in each of those categories since the trade deadline.
That said, the Mets’ lineup has a lot more talent and has the third-highest BB/K rate in the second half of the season, which really helps against a Washington pitching staff that’s lost the plate since the All-Star Game.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) because the market is barreling into the Over yet we have a “line freeze” and if anything the total is moving in the opposite direction.
According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over but the total is still at the 8.50-run opener and the Under is juiced heavier.
The reason for this live movement, or lack thereof, could be the Mets playing in the highest rate of Unders in divisional games and the Nationals playing to the Under at the third-highest rate against NL East foes. And again, both lineups have been terrible this month.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
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