The Cincinnati Reds (54-49) open a three-game series against the New York Mets (54-47) Friday with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Citi Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Sonny Gray is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 2-6 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 70 IP over 14 starts.
Gray allowed more than 3 ER just once in his first 12 starts but has surrendered 13 ER in just 8 IP across his last two outings. He has posted a 3.33 ERA with just 2 homers allowed through 27 IP in five road starts this year.
RHP Carlos Carrasco is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He will be making his first start of the season after tearing a hamstring in March.
In 2020 Carrasco was 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 68 IP over 12 starts.
He had a rough rehab start July 20th allowing 5 ER in 1 2/3 IP with 3 BB and no strikeouts but rebounded with 6 K in 3 scoreless innings in his last outing.
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Reds at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Reds 6, Mets 4
Money line (ML)
The Cincinnati offense, led by Joey Votto and his six-game home run streak, has been pretty hot with five-plus runs in each of their last seven games. Carrasco has faced a total of just 29 batters in his three rehab appearances, and can’t be expected to work deep into the game.
Gray has been shaky in his last two starts but had a stellar 3.19 ERA prior to those two outings. Look for him to bounce back and take the REDS (+115).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
There doesn’t appear to be much value in the lines listed above. The Mets will likely turn to their ‘pen pretty early in the contest and the Cincinnati offense could do some damage in the middle innings. Flip the run line to REDS -1.5 (+185).
Over/Under (O/U)
Carrasco is an excellent pitcher but it’s not really clear what the Mets will get out of him in his first start of the year other than an abbreviated outing. The Reds’ offense has been rolling and should put up their fair share of runs.
Gray should return to form soon but can’t be counted on to completely shut down a New York offense that is back to full strength. A small bet on OVER 8 (-115) makes sense here.
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