The Cincinnati Reds (50-47) host the St. Louis Cardinals (49-49) Saturday at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincinnati beat St. Louis 6-5 Friday as the Reds rallied to score 3 runs in the seventh and eighth innings.
Season series: Reds lead 7-4.
RHP Jake Woodford is on the hill for the Cardinals. He is 2-1 with a 4.06 ERA (31 IP, 14 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 across one start and 17 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 8-3, with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K against the Chicago Cubs Monday.
- Woodford has worked out of the bullpen twice this season against Cincy and is 0-0 with a 2 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 4 K over 4 IP.
RHP Luis Castillo is Cincinnati’s projected starter. He is 3-10 with a 4.39 ERA (108 2/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 over 20 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 8 K in Cincinnati’s 7-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday.
- Castillo is 1-2 against St. Louis this season with an 8.16 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 17 H, 4 BB and 8 K in three starts.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster (201 PA): 5.65 FIP with a .257 batting average, .345 wOBA, .457 expected slugging percentage, 22.9 K% and 85.9 mph exit velocity.
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Cardinals at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Reds -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-120) | Reds -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Reds 7, Cardinals 4
Money line (ML)
The discrepancy in the starting pitching matchup is summed up by the pricing of this game.
As such, I’ll PASS on risking 1.85-times my potential return on the Reds despite how good Castillo has looked recently.
Castillo has six quality starts over his last seven outings with a 1.41 ERA over that span but his career numbers against St. Louis are worse than his career averages.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+100) for a half unit since it’s a much cheaper price-point than Cincinnati’s money line.
Also, the Reds have the more reliable starter on the mound and Woodford’s previous start was the only outing in which he went past the third inning.
The Reds could nuke a St. Louis bullpen that has the worst xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in the MLB.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-105) because it’s a fairly obvious play, as the Over cashed in three straight head-to-head meetings in Cincinnati.
If Castillo isn’t on-point for this start, then he’ll be turning the game over to a bullpen that’s actually ranked below the Cardinals in WAR and has the highest HR/9 in MLB.
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