The Boston Red Sox (55-36) and New York Yankees (46-43) kick-off the second half of the MLB season Thursday by starting a four-game series at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Red Sox lead 6-0.
LHP Eduardo Rodríguez is on the rubber for the Red Sox. He is 6-5 with a 5.52 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 over 17 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 5 K at the Los Angeles Angels last Wednesday.
- Rodriguez is 1-0 against the Yankees this season with 3.97 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 1 BB and 15 K in two starts.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster: 175 at-bats with a .251/.347/.474 slash line, 54/24 K/BB, 10 HR and 27 RBIs.
RHP Domingo German is the projected starter for the Yankees. He is 4-5 with a 4.44 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 81 IP spanning 15 starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: Picked up a hold in 2 IP out of the bullpen, he allowed 2 earned runs on 3 hits and no walks with 2 strikeouts.
- German is 0-1 against Boston this season with a 3.72 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 6 K in two starts.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 84 at-bats with a .238/.316/.381 slash line, 22/8 K/BB, 2 HR and 8 RBIs.
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Red Sox at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Yankees -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+140) | Yankees +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Yankees 7, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
It’s the first game back from the All-Star Break and the Yankees need to kick it into high gear. They sit eight games back of the Red Sox for first place in the AL East and are on the cusp of ruining a season in their title window.
Aside from urgency, there are a couple of other reasons why I’ll BET the YANKEES (-110) for 1 unit.
First of all, German’s pitching peripherals against current Red Sox hitters are a shade better than Rodriguez’s against active Yankees batters.
German has a 3.50 FIP with a .332 expected wOBA and .410 expected slugging percentage against Boston’s lineup while Rodriguez has a 5.78 FIP, .372 expected wOBA and .512 expected slugging percentage vs. New York’s lineup.
Also, for all of New York’s struggles this season, the Yankees lineup grades well against left-handed pitching. New York’s lineup ranks in the top-six of MLB in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate vs. lefty pitchers.
And while Rodriguez has pitched well against New York this season, I think the Yankees hitters will square him up better in their third try Thursday. TAKE the YANKEES (-110) for 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the YANKEES -1.5 (+165) ALTERNATE RUN LINE for a quarter unit if at all because eight of the last 10 Red Sox-Yankees meetings were decided by 2 or more runs.
However, New York has only a 34.9% cover rate as a home favorite this season (15-28 ATS) and the implied win probability of the alternate run line price is 37.74%.
Furthermore, Boston has the second-highest cover rate as a road underdog at 82.6% (19-4 ATS).
That being said, I’d roll the dice on New York’s alternate run line at that price given the high likelihood the winner of this match wins by 2 or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because I only have a slight “lean” toward the Over 10 (-105) but we’d be getting the worst of the number since Red Sox-Yankees opened with an 8.5-run total before the market steamed it up to the current price.
All that line movement plus New York’s inconsistent lineup and the strength of each bullpen equals a PASS on the total.
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