The San Diego Padres (53-39) host the Colorado Rockies (39-51) for the finale of their three-game series Sunday at Petco Park. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rockies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the rubber match since Colorado evened the series with a 3-0 win Saturday. Rockies All-Star starting RHP German Márquez pitched a gem allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk with 9 strikeouts across 7 scoreless innings.
Season series: Padres lead 6-5.
RHP Jon Gray is on the hill for the Rockies. Gray is 5-6 with a 3.94 ERA (80 IP, 35 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 across 15 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Colorado’s 3-2 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday.
- Gray is 0-2 against San Diego this season with a 3.97 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 4 BB and 7 K in two starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 164 at-bats with a .280/.328/.506 slash line, 38/9 K/BB, 8 HR and 28 RBIs.
LHP Ryan Weathers is San Diego’s projected starter. Weathers is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 over 10 starts and six relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 7-4, with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K vs. the Washington Nationals Tuesday.
- 2021 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.41 ERA (29 IP, 11 ER), 1.17 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB rate in five starts and three bullpen outings.
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Rockies at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockies +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rockies +1.5 (-125) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Padres 4, Rockies 3
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” toward Colorado’s First 5 Innings money line because the Rockies have the better starter in this game but I prefer to play it safe and take Colorado’s First 5 Innings run line at a good price point.
What’s holding me back from sprinkling on the underdog’s money line here is the Rockies’ terrible hitting splits on the road and against left-handed pitching.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the ROCKIES +0.5 (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Weathers grades in the 18th percentile or worse in expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate and K%.
The reason why we are backing Colorado on the First 5 Innings line instead of the full game is that the Rockies’ bullpen is bottom 10 in xFIP, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate while San Diego’s is top 10 in each of those categories.
Over/Under (O/U)
GIMME the UNDER 8.5 (-115) as my favorite play in Rockies-Padres because there’s been “sharp” line movement towards the under as this game opened with a flat-9 total before being steamed down to the current number.
Furthermore, the Under has cashed in five of the last seven Rockies-Padres meetings and Colorado has scored by far the fewest runs on the road this season.
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