The Cincinnati Reds (46-42) and Milwaukee Brewers (53-37) play the third game of a four-game set Saturday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Vladimir Gutierrez is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 4-3 with a 4.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over 44 1/3 IP across eight starts.
Gutierrez allowed just two runs, five hits and two walks with six strikeouts across six innings in a win at the Kansas City Royals, snapping a three-start winless skid. He is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA and .213 opponent batting average vs. Milwaukee this season.
RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 7-3 with a 2.23 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 93 IP through 16 starts and 1 relief appearance.
Peralta allowed two earned runs, three hits and five walks with seven strikeouts across six innings in a loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates July 4. The All-Star is 0-1 with a 2.87 ERA and .175 opponent batting average in three starts vs. Cincinnati.
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Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-115) | Brewers -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 4, Reds 3
Money line (ML)
The Brewers (-200) are a little more expensive than I care to play on a money line bet, especially since I expect this game to be super close.
AVOID.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The REDS +1.5 (-115) is worth a play in this game which should be very close. Gutierrez has had his way with the Brewers -1.5 (+105) in two previous starts this season. I don’t quite think the third time is a charm for Gutierrez, but Cincinnati should keep it close in Cream City.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean in this game with two solid pitchers on the bump. The Under has connected in seven straight divisional games for Cincinnati, while going 6-0 in their past six against winning teams.
The Under has also hit in the past five outings for the Brewers, while going 4-0 in their past four as a favorite, and 5-2 in the past seven at home against teams with a winning overall mark.
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