The San Francisco Giants (55-32) host the Washington Nationals (42-45) Saturday for the second game of their three-game set at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco won the first game of the series Friday, 5-3, with C Curt Casali filling in nicely for C Buster Posey by hitting 3-for-4 with a home run, a double and 2 RBIs.
Season series: Giants lead 3-2.
LHP Jon Lester is Washington’s projected starter. Lester is 2-3 with a 5.34 ERA (60 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 across 13 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 3 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 2 K in Washington’s 7-5 victory at the San Diego Padres Monday.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 161 at-bats with a .242/.313/.447 slash line, 42/14 K/BB, 8 HR and 19 RBIs.
RHP Anthony DeSclafani makes his 18th start for the Giants. DeSclafani is 9-3 with a 2.84 ERA (101 1/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 5-2, with 8 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K Sunday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 159 at-bats with a .239/.288/.377 slash line, 39/9 K/BB, 5 HR and 14 RBIs.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Nationals at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Giants -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-115) | Giants -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Giants 6, Nationals 2
Money line (ML)
When you look under the hood of DeSclafani’s home numbers you’ll see that he’s pitched much better than his basic numbers indicate and he’s due for a solid home outing.
For instance, DeSclafani has a 4.24 ERA at home and a 2.14 ERA on the road this season, but DeSclafani’s xFIP, K-BB% and home run per nine innings rate are all better in San Francisco.
However, DeSclafani’s .289 home BAbip (.212 BAbip on the road) and 62.1% left-on-base percentage at home (91.1% LOB% on the road) show he’s just been unlucky in San Francisco.
The opposite is true with Lester’s home/road splits as his pitching peripherals in away games are far worse than at home. In fact, Lester has an 8.53 FIP on the road and a minus-1 K-BB%.
What I’m getting at is the GIANTS (-200) is a fair price that I’d put 1 unit on. As in, if your standard unit is $100 then I’d wager that on the GIANTS (-200) to hopefully earn a $50 profit.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (-105) for a half unit because we are paying a steep enough price for San Francisco’s money line.
That being said, the Giants have a winning ATS record at home, and as a home favorite, while the Nationals have a sub-.500 ATS record as road underdogs.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS even though Lester’s road splits are awful and Washington’s bullpen is nothing to brag about because San Francisco’s IL is far too lengthy for me to have a lot of confidence in the offense.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]