The Pittsburgh Pirates (32-54) and New York Mets (45-38) got rained out Thursday, and will now begin a four-game weekend series Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP JT Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 4-8 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 83 2/3 IP over 15 starts.
Brubaker hasn’t been great on the road this season, as he boasts a 4.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, compared to 3.40 and 0.96 at home. He has allowed five homers in his last two starts, pushing his HR/9 up to 1.7 on the year.
RHP Taijuan Walker is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 85 IP over 15 starts.
Walker has been lights out at home this season, putting up a 1.52 ERA in seven starts, with 45 strikeouts across 41 1/3 IP.
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Pirates at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Mets -200 (bet $2000 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-130) | Mets -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Mets 5, Pirates 2
Money line (ML)
The Pirates have struggled all season on the road, winning just 13 of 42 contests and ranking 29th in the league at 3.00 runs per game.
Brubaker got off to a strong start but has recorded a 5.36 ERA and 2.0 HR/9 over his last eight starts.
The Mets are 26-12 at home this season and should come out on top in this one, but -200 is too steep. PASS on the money line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Pirates have scored two runs or less in eight of their last 10 games, and face a pitcher in Walker who has had a lot of success in his home park. They will have a tough time getting much going Friday evening.
The Mets haven’t hit well at home, as their 3.39 runs per game rank dead last in all of baseball. But several starters have recently returned from injury, and they should push across enough runs to win by more than one.
Go with METS -1.5 (+105).
Over/Under (O/U)
This is a matchup of the two lowest-scoring teams in the league. The Mets run line and Under can’t both hit if the Pirates get three or more runs, but Walker has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and should shut down a struggling Pittsburgh offense.
The Mets aren’t likely to have a huge day, either, so UNDER 7.5 (-115) is the side to take.
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