The Washington Nationals (42-43) wrap up their four-game series against the San Diego Padres (51-38) Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Max Scherzer is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is 7-4 with a 2.10 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 94 1/3 IP over 16 starts.
Scherzer has seen his ERA drop with each of his last five starts and has won each of his last five road starts.
RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 7-3 with a 2.65 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 102 IP over 17 starts.
The Padres are 13-4 in Darvish starts this season. He picked up the loss last time out when he gave up 4 runs on 6 hits, including 2 home runs, in 6 innings Saturday against the Philadelphia Phillies.
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Nationals at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Padres 4, Nationals 2
Money line (ML)
The Nationals have taken two of the first three games of the series, winning 15-5 on Wednesday night. They are 18-21 on the road and have won six of their last nine games away from Nationals Park.
The Padres have lost five of their last seven games but still have won 10 of their last 13 at home. San Diego has not lost a home series since dropping two of three to the Chicago Cubs June 7-9. The Friars are tied for the most home wins in the majors with 31.
Take the PADRES (-150).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Nationals are only 38-47 ATS this season and have covered the spread in only two of their last seven games. They only have one one-run loss since June 26 and two since June 12, so when they lose it tends to be by more than one run.
The Padres, even with two ATS losses in the series, are still 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. They are 47-42 ATS on the season. Five of their last seven wins have been by at least two runs.
Take the PADRES -1.5 (+145).
Over/Under (O/U)
All three games of the series so far have gone Over the projected total but with the starting pitching matchup of Scherzer and Darvish runs should be at a premium.
Seven of Scherzer’s last eight starts had totals of seven or less.
Take UNDER 7 (-110).
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