The Philadelphia Phillies (40-42) play the Chicago Cubs (42-43) Tuesday in the second game of their four-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly raked Chicago in the first game of the series 13-3 Monday as the Phillies batters crushed 5 home runs.
Season series: Phillies lead 1-0.
RHP Aaron Nola is on the rubber for the Phillies. Nola is 5-5 with a 4.44 ERA (95 1/3 IP, 47 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 over 17 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 11-6, with 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 11 K Wednesday against the Miami Marlins.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 68 at-bats with a .235/.325/.471 slash line, 22/10 K/BB, 4 HR and 10 RBIs.
RHP Jake Arrieta is Chicago’s projected starter. Arrieta is 5-8 with a 5.57 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 across 16 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 1 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 2 K in Chicago’s 15-7 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 169 at-bats with a .254/.344/.420 slash line, 33/22 K/BB, 5 HR and 16 RBIs.
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Phillies at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:34 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Cubs +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Phillies 8, Cubs 4
Money line (ML)
I’d BET the PHILLIES (-140) for 1 unit as more of a fade of the Cubs who’ve lost 10 in a row and their starting pitcher, Arrieta, who’s 0-4 with a 7.82 ERA over his past seven starts.
Chicago came into the season with questions surrounding its future as its title-winning core of Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo all being impending free agents. There’s a solid chance Chicago’s recent slide is foreshadowing a long summer for the Cubs.
Furthermore, there’s been “sharp” line movement towards the Phillies as they opened as -119 money line favorites but the market has steamed Philly up 21 cents on the dollar to the current number.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Phillies -1.5 (+110) isn’t a fat enough payout considering Philly is 2-8 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-3.3 run line margin.
Also, the Cubs +1.5 (-135) having the sixth-highest winning percentage at home and the highest cover rate as a home underdog with the highest run line margin (Chicago is 10-2 ATS as a home ‘dog with a plus-4.0 run line margin).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-110) for a half unit because the ball was jumping out of Wrigley Field Monday and the weather forecast is predicting 11 mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.
However, what’s holding me back from laying more on the Over is Philly’s 2-8 O/U record as a road favorite this season, Chicago’s 4-11-1 O/U record in Arrieta starts and since a vast majority of the market is backing the Over and I hate following crowds in sports betting.
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