The Chicago Cubs (42-42) host the Philadelphia Phillies (39-42) Monday to start a four-game series at Wrigley Field. The series opener is scheduled for an 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago lost its ninth consecutive game Sunday at the Cincinnati Reds and has fallen 8.5 games back of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central standings.
Philadelphia failed to pull off a three-game sweep against the San Diego Padres after dropping the series finale 11-1 Sunday. The Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
LHP Matt Moore is the Phillies projected starter. Moore is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 across four starts and six relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K in Philly’s 2-1 victory over the New York Mets June 25.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 61 at-bats with a .230/.324/.492 slash line, 20/8 K/BB, 5 HR and 9 RBIs.
RHP Zach Davies makes his 18th start for the Cubs. Davies is 5-5 with a 4.32 ERA (83 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-1, with 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K Tuesday at the Milwaukee Brewers.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 73 at-bats with a .274/.337/.466 slash line, 16/7 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.
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Phillies at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:04 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Cubs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Cubs -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 11 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Phillies 5, Cubs 3
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Phillies (+130) because I “lean” to Philly on the run line. What’s holding me back is the Cubs’ 26-13 home record and 13-10 record vs. left-handed pitching.
Also, Moore is a journeyman “back of the rotation” starter at best and his pitching peripherals vs. active Cubs hitters are far worse than Davies’ against current Phillies batters.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the PHILLIES +1.5 (-140) for a half unit because Philly is 18-13 ATS as a road underdog this season and Chicago is just 12-15 ATS as a home favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 11 (+100) for 1 unit as the best bet in Phillies-Cubs because the presumed “sharp” money is backing the Under while the “public” is betting the Over and both lineups have struggled recently.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 65% of the bets placed are on the Over but almost 70% of the money wagered is on the Under and typically it’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the betting public.
Furthermore, over the past two weeks, both lineups are in the bottom 10 of several advanced hitting metrics such as WAR, wRC+, OPS and wOBA.
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