The Chicago Cubs (42-41) meet the Cincinnati Reds (42-40) Sunday in their three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park for a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincinnati has edged out Chicago by one run in each of the first two games of the series.
Season series: Reds lead 5-3.
RHP Kyle Hendricks makes his 17th start for the Cubs. Hendricks is 10-4 with a 3.98 ERA (92 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 14-4 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Monday.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 172 at-bats with a .302/.383/.506 slash line, 44/22 K/BB, 8 HR and 24 RBIs.
LHP Wade Miley is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Miley is 6-4 with a 3.09 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 over 14 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 7 K in Cincinnati’s 12-4 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
- Miley picked up a win April 30 against the Reds, 8-6, with a stat line of 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 118 at-bats with a .212/.299/.364 slash line, 26/10 K/BB, 2 HR and 15 RBIs.
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Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:37 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-185) | Reds -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Reds 9, Cubs 4
Money line (ML)
GIMME the REDS (-125) for 1 unit to fade Hendricks who has struggled in recent outings against Cincinnati and because the Cubs have lost eight straight games.
For instance, Hendricks has lost three straight starts vs. the Reds (all in Cincinnati) and has an 8.28 ERA in his last five starts against the Reds with nine home runs allowed.
Furthermore, not only are Miley’s basic numbers against the Cubs better than Hendricks’ vs. the Reds but so are Miley’s pitching peripherals.
Miley has a 3.49 FIP with a .285 expected wOBA, .322 expected slugging percentage and a 2.5° launch angle vs. active Cincinnati batters.
While Hendricks has a 5.33 FIP with a .335 expected wOBA, .419 expected slugging percentage and a 15.2° launch angle against current Chicago hitters.
Lastly, according to Pregame.com, at the time of writing more than 80% of the money is on Chicago’s money line because, in my opinion, the Cubs are more popular and Hendricks is leading the majors in wins.
However, the Reds are playing much better baseball since the start of last month and it’s typically profitable in sports betting to fade lopsided betting markets.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+150) for a quarter unit because in Hendricks’ last three starts vs. Cincinnati the Reds have outscored the Cubs 28-13 and have won by two or more runs in two of those meetings.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the OVER 9.5 (-115) for 1 unit as another “contrarian play” against a majority of the market that is betting the Under because of too much “recency bias”.
Sure, the first two Cubs-Reds games in this series went well Under the total, but these teams have a combined 20-10 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
Moreover, Chicago has gone Over in Hendricks’ last six starts against divisional foes and Cincinnati has gone Over in Miley’s previous five starts as a favorite.
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