The Milwaukee Brewers (51-33) and Pittsburgh Pirates (29-53) play the finale of a four-game set Sunday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 7-2 with a 2.17 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 87 IP over 15 starts and one relief appearance.
Peralta makes his first start of July. He was as hot as a firecracker in June, going 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA with four of his five outings registering quality starts.
He allowed 3 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks with 7 strikeouts across 5 innings in a no-decision April 18 against the Pirates.
LHP Tyler Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 3-8 with a 4.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 85 1/3 IP over 15 starts.
Anderson was slightly better with a 4.97 ERA in June as opposed to his 5.76 ERA in May. However, he hasn’t won in five decisions across eight starts dating back to May 9.
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Brewers at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Saturday at 7:31 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Pirates +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-110) | Pirates +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 8, Pirates 2
Money line (ML)
The BREWERS (-190) are a little above my personal money limit of -180, but sometimes you have to make exceptions. Milwaukee is on an 11-game win streak, which is the second-longest regular-season streak in team history. They won 13 games in a row back in 1987.
Milwaukee has one of its best pitchers on the bump, and the Pirates should offer very little resistance.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The BREWERS -1.5 (-110) have won by two or more runs in each of the last four, and seven of their last eight, victories.
On the other hand the Pirates have been outscored 25-6 in the first three games of this set and have lost by two or more runs in each of the six games during their current losing skid.
In fact playing BREWERS -2.5 (+140) on the alternate line is also worth a small-unit play.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 8 (-105) is the play here, and the Brew Crew could very well take care of the Over themselves. They are averaging 8.3 runs per game during the first three victories in this set and the Over has cashed in each of the outings.
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