The San Diego Padres (48-33) and Cincinnati Reds (39-39) play the middle contest in a three-game set Wednesday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Joe Musgrove is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. Over 15 games (14 starts), Musgrove is 4-6 with a 2.22 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 85 IP.
The Friars right-hander tossed 7 shutout frames against Cincinnati June 17. He owns a 1.57 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over his last 8 starts.
RHP Vladimir Gutierrez is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. Through six starts, Gutierrez is 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 in 34 IP.
The rookie right-hander has benefited from some hit-rate friendly traffic conditions. Opponents have a mere .242 batting average on balls in play.
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Padres at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Reds +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-120) | Reds +1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Padres 7, Reds 4
Money line (ML)
San Diego took Tuesday’s opener, 5-4, and has gone 10-1 since June 16. The Padres are the lean in this one, but consider the less-juicer run line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Current Reds batters own a mere .643 OPS against Musgrove, and Cincinnati owns a mere .666 over its last 14 games. Cincy’s lefty bats are a big key in their production; San Diego’s bullpen is very tough on lefties.
BACK THE PADRES -1.5 (-120).
Over/Under (O/U)
With a bit of fade on the starter-and-bullpen combo on the visitors’ side; a more significant fade on Gutierrez; San Diego’s recent surge (.926 OPS last two weeks); the way Cincinnati hits at home (.818 OPS); the Over already has a lean.
Add in some warm, humid conditions and a breeze out the left-center (with Gutierrez being a fly-ball pitcher), TAKE THE OVER 10 (-110).
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