The Philadelphia Phillies (36-39) and Cincinnati Reds (38-38) meet Monday in a rescheduled game from a June 2 rainout. The longtime National League foes have a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Spencer Howard is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, and 7.0 BB/9 in 19 1/3 IP across four starts and four relief appearances.
Howard is coming off seven days of rest; he hasn’t pitched since making a 53-pitch relief appearance June 20 at the San Francisco Giants.
LHP Wade Miley is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 6-4 with a 2.85 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 75 2/3 IP over 13 starts.
The veteran lefty has logged a fine 2.67 ERA with a 2.1 BB/9 in 33 2/3 innings at home this season. He’s held current Philadelphia bats to a .694 OPS over his career.
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Phillies at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:12 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Reds -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Phillies 6, Reds 4
Money line (ML)
Peg Miley as being too far out over his skis with a surface ERA under 3.00. He’s benefited from a .251 batting average on balls in play and is up against an opponent swinging hot bats of late. The Phils own a robust .746 OPS in June.
The Reds hurler is backed by a scuffling bullpen that owns a 6.26 ERA in June and analytics back the story that number tells.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA (+135).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run line and take advantage of the underdog payout on the money line.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under is trending with both teams of late going 3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 4 games and 4-0 in Cincinnati’s last 4. Look for some swing the other way on a hot, humid evening in Cincinnati.
Howard throws a lot of fastballs and the Reds are a very good fastball-hitting club. The righty-lefty match-up on the mound swings both teams to their best platoon sides. The Cincy bullpen is in fade-a-whole-run territory compared to the rest of the league.
BACK THE OVER 9.5 (-115).
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